In April 1991, I published a long treaty on the state of the world. My writings were inspired by Lester Brown's book which drew a sinister picture of the harsh realities that we face. While I was preparing the participation of the Zeri Foundation (then still a Swiss organization established in cooperation with the United Nations Program for Development and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development) at the Universal Exhibition, I wanted to brush a series solutions. If I shared the hard intuitions of Lester Brown, I did not agree with his predictions. I was - and I remain - convinced that we can change course! In the context of the locking of the world imposed by virologists, I suggest you read point 7 on page 16 to understand the challenges we are really confronted with health.

April 6, 2020

Back to Adam Smith

There is light at the end of the tunnel

Introduction to the reissue 21 years after

When this article drew my attention in this blocking period, I realized what a methodological approach can teach us about how to envisage the future. Here are the observations that I made over twenty years ago, while I was preparing to present the concept of the blue economy and the standard according to which zero emission and zero waste are the starting point and not a final objective.

1. The economy is not a science. Unfortunately, I must now conclude that many of the traditional sciences, such as biology and chemistry, have an urgent need for a fundamental revision. As I said, most of the diplomas that are over 20 years old have exceeded their expiration date. It is necessary to carry out a fundamental revision of what we teach our children.

2. Pollution as a success parameter. Surprising that we have exploited the common good until its collapse and that the few remaining pockets are threatened because it was to protect, and that we have never had a standard requiring to regenerate.

3. Go beyond the reduction. Indeed, we need an economic model that regenerates, uses what is available locally and ensures the resilience of communities to meet all basic needs.

I therefore invite you to read this article and perhaps pay particular attention to the section 16 section, devoted to infectious diseases. The texts in blue are my updates.

In a magnificent, informative, relevant and relevant publication entitled "Beyond Malthus", Lester Brown and his colleagues from the Worldwatch Institute provide an amazing summary of the 20 challenges that the world must face since the population will continue to grow for at least half a century . The projections are dark, the reasons to hope are limited, especially when we know that everything we do today will not be enough to improve the critical situation of the billions of people who live in poverty, deprived of the most basic services In terms of water, food, health care, housing, energy and employment.

Nothing has changed! We have only changed the millennium objectives for development in sustainable development objectives after failing to change reality for the majority of the poor. We know that the richest has become much richer and that the gap between the rich and the poor continues to widen.

The prevailing production and consumption model is obviously unable to meet the needs of all the communities in the world. It does not seem that it is an inequality on purpose, but rather a case of ignorance of the way of doing better. The means that have been implemented to produce goods and services are deeply waste and have not yet managed to integrate the effectiveness inherent in nature. Worse, production engineers are sure of their productivity success they consider to be better than nature. The desire to produce more and faster has led to a treatment system where chemicals, pressure and temperature are used to isolate a component, considering the rest as waste. The stress of consuming more, more often, has led to a waste society that drowns in its own waste.

The ability to produce much more with less is the basis of Homo Economicus, and represents the heart and soul of the economy. If everyone agrees that the main objective and the main contribution of the economy is its effort of productivity and efficiency, meeting the needs of the market, it is clear that it still has a long way to go Before being able to claim to have approached this objective. The economy is a science that still works at the Stone Age, at a time when humanity has already entered the age of space.

If economists were looking for a new production model based on systems inspired by nature, which imitate it and which work in harmony with it, then this science would probably succeed in providing the minimum of goods and services to all the inhabitants of the Planet without exhausting the limited resources of the earth, without provoking the collapse of the ecosystem on which we depend.
The main reason why the current economic model is unable to do exactly this is that it does not apply the most basic rules provided by its own theory: to implement an ever more productive way to combine work, capital and The raw materials by the continuous introduction of innovations which is based on a unique human characteristic - creativity.

This article, inspired by and in reaction to the analysis of Lester Brown which motivated me for so many years, takes up the assessments of the Worldwatch Institute, and indicates how some of the trends could change if economists applied their own theory. The Worldwatch Institute aimed at promoting the evolution of an ecologically sustainable society, the analyzes presented here could perhaps contribute to these objectives in an original way.

The key to changing the macroeconomic framework is to design new business models that move away from all that is taught in MBAs.

Economic theory

The economy is barely considered to be a science by physicists, biologists, chemists, even engineers have doubts. These reservations are founded. There is no science that demonstrates in its practical implementation such a discrepancy between what it does and what it prescribes and teaches. Worse, while all sciences, from psychology to biology, have evolved towards a systemic approach, economists remain in the practice at the micro-economic level, generic called the science of management, of impressive linearity. It is therefore all the more surprising to note the extent of the influence that the economy and management have acquired in our society.

The first defect in the economy in practice is that it only focuses out of two of the three main production factors. The economic theory prescribes that Homo Economicus seeks the most effective combination of three production factors: work, capital and raw materials. But by analyzing what the business schools teach and verifying what companies do, it is clear that the search for productivity only relates to work (produce more with fewer people) and capital (get better yields with less risks). We are hardly interested in the concept of material productivity. The result of such an incomplete approach is that the economy produces more added value by employee, gets better yields for capital and removes jobs. This leads to the false axiom that an increase in productivity goes hand in hand with an increase in unemployment.

It is quite surprising that this positive correlation between better productivity and higher unemployment has become a largely accepted phenomenon. Economists hope that over time, new innovations and the identification of new commercial opportunities will guarantee slow but certain absorption of the population in the active population. The reality is very different. While never in history has so many people have a job, never in history, so many people are desperately looking for a job.

While in Europe and in Japan, we can hope that negative demographic growth will end up solving the problem in about a generation, economists seem to neglect the fact that such an attitude of laissez/leaves send a message of More dramatic at 20 % of the world's population and around 40 % of young people: society does not need you! Rich nations can indeed afford such an attitude. The transfer of purchasing power through taxation can mitigate the difficulties created by such an insensitive approach to unemployment. Developing countries, on the other hand, know only too well that high unemployment rates among the young generation, which can represent up to 60 % of society, open the way to violence, to the insurrection and even to The disintegration of civil society.

Nothing has changed. The harsh reality is that high unemployment rates, combined with irremediable environmental degradation and the disintegration of civil society (war) lead to an exodus that results in a large -scale exodus where people risk everything to reach " 'another side ”.

Pollution as a success parameter

The emphasis on labor and capital productivity does not only lead to high levels of unemployment, it is also the main reason why the current production model pollutes, and that the consumption of products generates so much waste. The fact that the economy and management are capable, but not prepared, to meet the needs of the company by a systemic design, leads to a massive loss of resources, which manifests in the form of waste, pollution of water and air, discharges, incinerators and illegal discharges.

In the 1950s, success was measured by the number of chimneys, with the brownish color of the local river and with a smile on the black face of the workers. Today, industrial success is projected to society by trees and flowers, animals and blue sky. We know that the truth is quite different. Over 100,000 synthetic products offer great comfort and great luxury, but on the other hand genes problems that we have not yet started to understand. The packaging prevails more and more on the content of the product, and we spend more energy for the transport of foods than what this nutrient could ever offer to its consumer. It is not a simple criticism of the current economic model, but only an indication that we are far from applying what we have proposed as a final objective: to do more with less.

In a systemic design, we can imagine how waste from a process can evolve to become a source for other processes. It is enough to observe a tree to know that it could never survive without the mushrooms and the earthworms which transform its leaves lost into humus, and without the excrement of birds which feed on its fruits mineralize water by bringing it additional nutrients. The modern, linear and simplified industrial version to the extreme, of the tree would prescribe all the leaves of the forest at a central point, where all mushrooms and earthworms come together, after which we try to make New leaves ... which would never work. Each tree has its own ecosystem which makes it possible to recover all nutrients and energy, through a complex system, which ultimately allows the tree to continue to grow and procreate. This lesson in nature shows only too clearly only a recycling company, or a closed circuit economy, has no chance of cleaning the environment, generating the necessary added value, and will never survive the Time test. The permanent recycling of nutrients in a closed circuit creates "mad cow disease" in animals, and incest leads to degeneration of humans. Why do we try to recycle in a closed system, feeding on our own tail?

It is necessary to design (1) complex and (2) systems open, which should not be difficult. The result will be a spectacular improvement in efficiency, which will introduce the 10/60 rule, replacing the traditional 80/20 rule which dominated economic thought during the last century. The 10/90 rule stipulates that by simply using 10 % of the available space, you can treat all waste from a process and generate 90 % of total revenues. This ability to generate added value from "nothing", using little space, allows job creation, thus ensuring a simple logic for a basic economic rule: the increase in productivity generates more 'Jobs, and is only possible when we use all the materials. When we have managed to fully use all the material and energy, the production model has reached its optimum. If the production model has reached its optimum, then there will be no more pollution and we will have achieved the objective of zero emission and zero waste. It is an effort that will never stop.

Beyond the reduction of waste and pollution

The major advantage of this production model based on what Adam Smith has taught us two centuries ago, is not the simple elimination of waste or the creation of jobs. The major advance of this approach is that it allows us to consider how the company can meet the needs of the company: water, food, housing, health and energy care. If economists evolve towards systemic thinking, managers can become systems practitioners, and society will exploit this formidable human energy anchored in its creativity, crystallizing its desire to offer a better future for future generations.

The emphasis on total productivity, which has paid attention equal to work, capital and raw materials, leads to a synergy that exceeds the possible achievements of a productivity program focused on one or two of these three key components. But it should be kept in mind that if it is possible to develop productivity programs for capital and labor within the industry or the agro process, it is impossible to do it for raw materials, the waste, weeds. You have to look for opportunities outside the main activity.

A productivity program that targets raw materials, waste and weeds goes beyond simple recovery and recycling. The search for productivity implies a search for added value, and the optimization of multiple outputs of a complete system with a given input. This goes further than the recovery of heavy metals after consumption; This goes further than the extraction of more than cellulose from an existing tree; This goes further than organic farming, eliminating chemicals. It is a production process that aims to fully use all the components, again and again, so that nothing is lost. And this can only be achieved if we operate in clusters of industries.

If the recycling programs are well known, the design of a system allowing to fully use all inputs is surprisingly applied only in the petroleum industry. There is no other industry that cracks molecules in such a precise way that in the end, almost everything is used. It is interesting to note that the petroleum and petrochemical industry is the only one that continuously seeks new uses for its exceptional product and which continues to add value to its cracking of molecules. It is therefore not surprising that it can be much more competitive than similar products made from renewable sources. Natural products are always more expensive because we generally focus only on a single component, considering the rest as waste.

The application of the design of systems in economics and management, the introduction of productivity for raw materials, waste and weeds can help us to see the light at the end of the tunnel which is dark and without promise. Here are some reflections on these points using the treaty of Lester Brown "Beyond Malthus" as a reference. The 19 areas of reflection are:

1. Cereals production
2. Freshwater
3. Biodiversity
4. Energy
5. Fishing
6. Jobs
7. Infectious diseases
8. Cultivated land
9. Forests
10. Housing
11. Climate change
12. Materials
13. Urbanization
14. Protected natural spaces
15. Education
16. Waste
17. Conflicts
18. Production of meat
19. Income

Pollution as a success parameter

Pollution as a success parameter

1. Cereal production

• “From 1950 to 1984, the growth of the cereal harvest easily exceeded that of the population, passing the harvest by person from 247 to 342 kilograms. During the 14 years that followed, the growth of the cereal harvest fell behind that of the population, bringing down production per person from this historic summit from 1984 to an estimate of 312 kilograms in 1998 - a drop of 9 percent . »(P.33)

Since cereals, rice, corn and other important crops suffer from a decrease in production per capita and that it seems to be no chance of increasing access to new lands, 'Irrigation and fertilizers, we must seek alternative means of increasing the production of nutrients. Given that each mentioned culture produces a multiple of 10 in terms of straw, envelopes, ears and others, which are almost always allowed to rot on the field, cremated, generating carbon dioxide, or simply used to clean The stables, their productive value is extremely under-exploited.

If we operate by production clusters, we can imagine how all this agro-industrial waste can-for example-be transformed into substrates for mushrooms. The straw (Volvariella Volvacae) and the oyster mushrooms (Pleurotus spp.) Fruit in the ambient environment, especially in hot and humid climates, exactly the regions where food demand is lower than needs. The quantity of straw is at least 10 times higher than that of cereals, it can be estimated that there is a potential of 18.5 billion tonnes of straw. If you reach a biological conversion rate of 50 %, you get 9.25 billion tonnes of mushrooms (90 % humidity), or 1.5 billion additional dry tonnes. And the used substrate is an excellent food for chickens.

As the two species of mushrooms mentioned would fruit in the weeks following inoculation, the nutrients would be available for immediate distribution and consumption. The additional use of land could be limited to 10 % of the land available for agriculture, thus generating a multiple income. Mushrooms can be dried and kept for consumption for 2 to 3 years without any conservation agent.
While Latin America has no culture of mushroom consumption, Africa and Asia both have a long tradition of harvesting and cooking mushrooms. The rich biodiversity of mushrooms, which remains to be discovered and understanding, is one of the largest potential areas of expansion of food.

The agricultural waste transformation program into mushrooms now has around 5,000 initiatives worldwide. It's a success ... and a failure. The potential is at least one million production units and this can be transformed into an important job and health engine in local communities.

2. Freshwater

“Wherever the population increases, the supply of fresh water per person decreases. Due to population growth, the amount of water available per person from the hydrological cycle will decrease by 73 % between 1950 and 2050. In the world, around 70 % of the pumped water in the basement or diverted from the rivers is Used for irrigation, 20 % is used for industrial purposes. (P. 37)

The main use of water for agriculture can be qualified as very ineffective. The study of the use of water under difficult conditions, such as the Namib desert, offers an inspiration base on how we could proceed differently, by obtaining the same results with a fraction of water only. The Welwitschia Mirabilis, the oldest living plant on earth survives in the Namibia desert for more than 2,000 years, allowing ruminants to chew its leaves as a source of humidity. This plant and insects of the same ecosystem are experts in the humidity of air. Whatever the region of the world, there is always humidity in the air. The harvest of fog has become a necessity for survival in Namibia and in northern Chile, but constitutes an unexploited opportunity everywhere else. When the water was abundant, it was not necessary to be creative, when the water is rare, one has no other choice than to become ingenious.

In one way or another, when humans are looking for water, faced with the absence of rivers and streams flowing nearby, the only option envisaged is to dig a hole. The air around them, even if there has not been rain for weeks or months, is rich in humidity and rarely descends below 15 %. Even in these dry circumstances, humidity increases every morning, to descend to the minimum in the afternoon. Technologies can be developed by drawing inspiration from the response of nature to the need to survive in the driest regions of the world.

The application of dried pellets can be used as a soil component, thus offering a first concrete example of the way in which nature can be used to reverse certain climatological conditions at first sight without future. As algae absorb water up to ten times their weight, they represent an exceptional source of water retention. In the morning, when the air humidity is high, the soil is restored in water captured in these seaweed granules, while it is released slowly during the day.

Seaweed is one of the least exploited resources. The coastal areas of Latin America and Africa, where large population concentrations emerge, are also the areas where high unemployment affects poor communities. It is therefore essential to see how the need to considerably increase the effectiveness of water consumption for agriculture, could stimulate coastal industries, starting by cleaning the beaches, then planting, harvesting and transforming algae. The result is very beneficial for the soil and crops, but, perhaps more importantly, we can increase the absorption of trace elements such as iodine, which are now lacking in the food cycle.

Industry has a second challenge to take up. Since it is the second largest consumer of water, the linear thought of water consumption imposed by law has become a major obstacle. Food processing industries, wood and fibers are large consumers of water. Each liter of beer requires ten liters of water; Each tonne of cellulose requires 20 tonnes of water; Each tonne of recycled cellulose requires 40 tonnes of water; Each tonne of sisal fiber is produced with 30 tonnes of water. Each kilo of coffee requires 35 liters of water…. . The conclusion is clear: there is a huge margin for improving water consumption, provided you are ready to introduce new treatment technologies.

The washing of coffee has reduced the consumption of wastewater by 40 liters to 0.2 per kilo. All wastewater of a brewery must be used for breeding fish and algae on site, without neutralization of pH as prescribed the law. The production of a ton of cellulose from trees can be obtained using only 2 tonnes of water, by introducing technology of the steam explosion. It is perfectly possible to considerably reduce water consumption in industry if you are priority.

The introduction of stone paper made it possible to reduce the consumption of water per tonne of paper to almost zero, without it being necessary to recycle the water. to recycle water. Five factories were built. The introduction of the cultivation of tomatoes with condensation water has made it possible to develop an agricultural technique which produces water while cultivating tomatoes. The first three mega-farms are operational. Algae have converted into change agents, in particular by capturing microplastics and producing biogas while creating a refuge for juveniles; The regeneration of biodiversity ...

3. Biodiversity

“We live in the largest extinction of vegetable and animal life since the disappearance of dinosaurs some 65 million years ago, with losses of species of 100 to 1,000 times higher than the natural rate. The main sources of the current disappearance of species are all linked to human activities. (P. 41)

If we see on the one hand a massive loss of species, there are on the other hand a large number of species which remain unknown. The second largest kingdom in nature, fungi has around 1.5 million species, only 5 % of which have been described from a taxonomic point of view. And out of these 80,000 species, scientists have managed to distinguish males from females only in around 15 % of cases. It seems that there is a need to secure the survival of what we have, but there is an equally urgent need to understand what we still have and to use it in a productive way. While there are germoplasm banks for crop seeds, there are no germoplasm banks for fungi in Africa and Latin America, two continents which represent approximately 45 % of biodiversity. Scientists rightly ask for a better seed bank for varieties of plants and crops, while species of mushrooms should be added urgently to the list of wishes.

It is necessary to better understand the generating capacity of nature. As demonstrated by the Environmental Research Center Las Gaviotas (Colombia), there is a unique capacity to create bridges between desolate regions where the environment has deteriorated, even where life is threatened, and the animated areas of Biodiversity. This unique model of dynamic reproduction deserves more detailed attention. If it allows us to imagine how to protect nature, it also makes it possible to regenerate environments that could house and duplicate the unique reserves that remain at our disposal. What Las Gaviotas have managed to do to Vichada, Colombia, over an area of ​​11,000 hectares, could be reproduced in the same region of the world, on some 6 million hectares.

The interest of this exercise is that the restoration of biodiversity is self -sufficient. It only requires the starting capital equivalent to a million dollars per 1,500 ha. Additional funding is possible thanks to drinking water production, a challenge that has been clearly identified in the previous chapter. If the reforestation and water management are combined effectively, then we can tackle two key problems at the same time. It is possible to find solutions to this challenge.

Las Gaviotas was the first to demonstrate how to regenerate biodiversity - giving nature to nature. Thanks to the popularization of agricultural techniques such as agroforestry and permaculture, we understand better how to invite the five kingdoms of the nature to contribute to food productivity, nutrition and cycle of materials. We are witnessing today the regeneration of the biodiversity of the forests of the seas (algae and forest curtains) and terrestrial forests.

4. Energy

“During the last half century, global energy demand has been multiplied by more than five-more than twice as fast than the population. During the next half-century, global energy demand should continue to increase far beyond population growth, the development nations trying to catch up with industrial nations. (P. 45)

Many renewable energies have been studied, but one of them remains largely unexploited, both in developing countries and in industrialized countries: biogas from animal and plant waste. If intensive pigsties are a major problem in terms of health risks and underground water nitrification, their energy production potential is largely neglected.

For 1,000 pigs, a biogas is produced equivalent to 100 liters of oil, or some 36.5 tonnes of oil equivalent per year. Several countries and regions are home to millions of pigs. These regions can easily convert this waste problem into a large source of energy. In the case of Curitiba, a city proud of its environmental design, there are enough pigs to supply all the buses in the state with biogas. Currently, the State is negotiating the construction of a $ 90 million gas pipeline from Bolivia, it could in fact install a gas pipeline to the pigs instead.

Pigs are not the only source of biogas, water hyacinth, widely considered as a parasite in Africa, is another largely neglected important potential source. A kilogram of water hyacinth is capable of generating a cubic meter of methane. If we consider that there are millions of tonnes of decaying water in the African, Latin American and Asian lakes, the operating potential of this form of energy is enormous.

The digesters necessary to transform this manure and these plant parasites into an energy source are cheap and easy to install. Models are available from 20 dollars per unit, but could also cost $ 2 million for industrial application in Japan. Benin was the first country to adopt the biogas option from the water hyacinth at the Songhai center of Porto Novo. This digester is not only an excellent energy source, but also provides a quality fertilizer. As the water hyacinth recovers all the traces of minerals and nutrients that have been swept away in rivers by soil erosion, it allows you to reapply to the ground what unsuitable agriculture had removed.

The transport of many small biogas producers to a central treatment center is considered the major challenge, but quite possible to resolve. Just as a milk truck collects the production of cows every day, a tank truck collects Biogaz produced the day before. Daily collection and daily income will guarantee daily maintenance. If there is no income, there is no maintenance, a problem which has often led in the past to a poor yield of digesters in rural areas. The gas is used in a limited form in the farm because it would require a double energy system. In certain circumstances, it is preferable to make it available to the public transport system at a competitive price. The simulation of potential in Latin America and Africa from pigsties and water hyacinth offers us a real light at the end of the tunnel.

Then we discovered the algae forests which also produce a massive biogas. We can meet all the energy needs of the United States with only 3.3 million square kilometers while increasing the livelihoods of billions of fish…

5. Fishing

• "From 1950 to 1988, the captures of ocean fish rose from 19 million to 88 million tonnes, a much faster growth than that of the population. The sockets per capita increased from less than 8 kilograms in 1950 to the historic peak of 17 kilograms in 1988, more than double. Since 1988, however, the growth in captures has slowed down and has become lower than that of the population. Between 1988 and 1997, taken by person fell to just over 16 kilograms, a drop of about 4 %. (P. 49)

Earth water masses have a huge capacity to produce fish proteins. Unfortunately, the fishing method used on the high seas and farming methods on earth largely neglect productivity concepts in a systemic context.

In a modern fish farm, we generally cultivate catfish (North America) or Tilapia, where species of indigenous fish from Africa genetically modified and manipulated are treated with hormones in order to guarantee that no energy and no food are wasted for egg production. This mixture of male and/or castrated fish is high in shallow ponds, nourished with special foods, added with antibiotics to stimulate growth and fight potential diseases. Polluted water continuously lacks dissolved oxygen, which requires an additional energy supply. This program not only offers a questionable result in terms of the quality of food and limited margins for farmers, but it does not highlight the potential of local biodiversity.

The concept of integrated fish farming, developed in China in the last 400 years, allows the use of 4 to 6 species of local fish which each feed on different nutrients at their ideal trophic level. The art of Chinese fish farming is that no one feeds fish, the system provides fish for fish. This allows a very effective conversion of inputs to fish protein, reaching up to 15 tonnes of fish per hectare without having to buy fish for fish. The marshes, often ecologically degraded, offer a unique first opportunity to apply these concepts.

Many agro-industries, which generate both massive quantities of excess water, constitute a second target to give a second utility to their residual waters. In addition to their quality water, they often contain nutrients that have direct interest in fish farming. Porchies have already been mentioned, breweries enter the same category but the production units of powdered milk, like those of Scandinavia where one can even imagine cultivating tropical species using all their waste, including milk in Powder which does not meet human consumption standards and which is rejected in hot treatment water sent to the treatment plant, may be the most interesting.

If we have succeeded in the cultivation of mushrooms on agricultural waste worldwide, we have only isolated examples in China and Brazil, where integrated bio-system has been successfully implemented. This is one of the areas in which we have not progressed as we had considered.

6.

• "Since the middle of the last century, the world active population has more than doubled, going from 1.2 billion people to 2.7 billion, which exceeds the growth in job creation. Consequently, the United Nations International Labor Organization estimates that nearly a billion people, or around a third of the world's active population, are unemployed or underemployed. During the next half-century, the world will have to create more than 1.7 billion jobs just to maintain current employment levels ”(p. 53)))

The challenge of the massive creation of jobs is impossible to take up if we maintain the current production model dominated by the basic commercial strategy and labor and capital productivity only. If we are ready to apply the basic principles of the economy and to seek the productivity of raw materials as vigorously as that of work, we can expect a massive change in the creation of jobs. The Zeri concept leads to thinking that it is perfectly possible to generate more jobs, while increasing the productivity of raw materials.

This logic was tested on a microeconomic scale. It must still be developed at the macroeconomic level, but the case is clear. If a beer brewer uses all the drêches to make bread, he creates and maintains more jobs by generating added value than if the dres were simply shipped by truck to a discharge or a farm. This bread competes and replaces bread made from freshly imported cereals, but on the other hand, its global production, especially in Africa and Latin America, will be available at a lower cost with greater efficiency, so that the Bread will now be accessible to people who could not afford the price of imported cereals.

How many jobs would be generated if all the brasseries of Africa applied this concept? How many jobs would be generated if all the reforestation projects also provided for production and drinking water bottle? How many additional jobs are possible if coffee waste is used as a substrate for agriculture? How many people can have work and be remunerated because social and sustainable housing are guaranteed with local building materials?

The challenge of 1.7 billion additional jobs is enormous, but the opportunities that emerge by converting waste and weeds into new productive inputs are easy to understand.

Since the launch of "The Blue Economy" in 2009, ten years after this article, another decade has passed and, just through the initiatives we follow, it is estimated that 3 million jobs have been created . We are far from our goal, but we managed to do better than what everyone expected.

7. Infectious diseases

• "The last half century has seen substantial global successes in the fight against many plagues of the past. Dominant demographic trends continue to create a overcrowded human "environment" which both invites and is vulnerable to infections. (P. 57)

Modern medicine endeavors to kill evil. As long as medicine has this clearly defined objective, it will not manage to stem the advancement of infectious diseases. The time has come to move from the elimination of evil to strengthen the property. There are few programs that guarantee that the immune system, which suffers from malnutrition, stress, professional exhaustion, contaminated water, polluted air, etc. can be reinforced. One of the problems is our diet. A second problem is increasing dependence on antibiotics which, over time, decrease the response capacity of our immune system.

Our diet does not contain enough modulative biochemical substances of the immune system, which is found in fungi (triterpines, proteins-hydrates), algae (betaacarotene, iodine) and vegetable oils (vitamin E). Our high dependence on animal proteins and fish does not allow us to access a large number of these precious components. Worse, the excessive transformation of food and their conservation in view of a long service life eliminates healthy and essential nutrients which are then added to a high price. The initiative consisting in cultivating varieties of fungi modulating the immune system (Lentinula Edodes, Ganoderma Lucidum) on agro-industrial waste flows offers the possibility of increasing natural substances which could even offer hope to orphans infected with HIV living in colonies in southern Africa. They have a job, they have a goal, they are fed, which is essential since antiviral drugs are less likely to succeed in an underlying body.

8. Cultivated land

• “Since the middle of the last century, the world's population has increased much faster than the area of ​​cultivated land. The cultivated surface increased by around 19 %, but the world's population increased by 132 %, seven times faster. This trend should continue over the next century, bringing the land cultivated by person to historically low levels. In overcrowded industrial countries such as Japan, Taiwan and Korea, the cereal surface per capita is today lower than the area of ​​a tennis court. (P.61-62)

The emphasis on cultivated land is limited. It must be extended to a wider food production system that goes beyond the simple availability of land. Cultures representing only a fraction of total biomass, their residues, in particular straw, offer unique and proven possibilities of protein and nutrient production, using the integrated biosystem widely applied in China. The case of some 10 million Chinese farmers teaches us that it is possible to use 10 % of cultivated land to generate 60 % of income. However, these additional income would not be created if the straw was not available at the start.

The degradation of land cultivated by soil erosion has a negative impact on land productivity. The use of fertilizers does not invert the downward trend in productivity. On the contrary, the excessive use of non -soluble fertilizers seems to worsen the situation. There are solutions to this problem. Water hyacinth accompanied by rapidly growing giant herbs and Girasols can ensure nutrient recovery. Water hyacinth is an aquatic poor grass that develops on the water bodies where nutrients are accumulating mainly from unrealized organic waste or soil erosion. A continuous harvest, hash and inoculation of water hyacinth offer the possibility of reapplying a mixture of trace elements and nutrients on the ground, supplemented by mycelia and bacteria.

The recovery of degraded lands could also be carried out by temporarily planting cultivated land with bamboo, which has rich foliage could convert this to improved soil, while providing building materials for social and sustainable housing. The complementary advantage is that bamboo ensures sequestration of 40 times more carbon dioxide per square meter and per year than a pine. This systemic approach is likely to offer good results for degraded agricultural land of the tropics.

A sustainable world will permanently reconstruct the arable layer. This is part of the global strategy, from food production to the development of renewable chemicals and the treatment of solid and liquid organic waste. The priority is to design a production and consumption cycle, especially in cities, which allows to complete this loop which has escaped the current economic model.

9. Forests

• »Global losses in forest areas have followed demographic growth during most of the history of humanity. The history of humanity. Indeed, 75 % of the historic growth of the world's population and approximately 75 % of the loss of the world forest area took place during the 20th century. Deforestation is created by the demand for forest products, which closely follows the increase in consumption per capita. The global use of paper and cardboard per person has doubled since 1961. ”(P. 65)

If we consider a system of production of paper and cardboard which remains centered on the cellulose resulting from wood, it is certain that it will not meet demand, even when the most successful genetic manipulation favoring the growth of trees will have been successfully implemented.

The use of cellulose of trees is ineffective. Cellulose from sugar cane (bagasse), banana and bamboo grows faster and is greater than what trees can be obtained. The only problem is that those who control the global cellulose market and associated treatment technologies have developed their activity over the past 100 years in a temperate climate. The most productive sources of cellulose are found in the tropics.

A bamboo contains about 40 times more cellulose per square meter and per year than a rap or a rapidly growing eucalyptus genetically manipulated. It is insane to seek a sustainable forestry when the cellulose easily available is not even seriously considered.

Today, the bagasse (48 % fiber) is cremated; Bamboo, whose growth can reach 25 meters a year, is simply not harvested. The availability of 8 million hectares of sugar cane, a sector in crisis due to the decrease in sugar demand (for obvious reasons since it creates dental plaque and is therefore replaced by synthetic sweeteners), would offer a new chance to farmers if the bagasse was paid at the same price as the eucalyptus fibers (+400 dollars per tonne), which exceeds the price of sugar on the market.

The cellulose of giant herbs can be used in large quantities for paper production, but the same separation technologies that have been developed for conifers and hardwoods cannot be used. It is not necessary to be an industrial engineer to understand that giant herbs such as sugar cane and bamboo have a structure fundamentally different from that of trees, and that it is therefore preferable to subject them to techniques of Separation adapted to tropics and herbs.

There are many initiatives aimed at using all these biomass for paper production, but unfortunately few have succeeded. The reason is that the majority of them have opted for the use of the same chemical and mechanical separation processes as those used in temperate climates. The paper and cardboard supply is not a problem provided that one is ready to think about the most effective supplier of the material. If we stick to the production of paper at all costs from pine cellulose, we are doomed to failure. The only winner is the forestry company which will see the prices of cellulose increase.
If, in addition to the production of cellulose, other by-products could be extracted from the tree, sugar cane or bamboo, we would then be in an ideal situation. Lignine production is an obvious choice because it is easy to obtain and constitutes a rich source of energy. We can now imagine a global increase in system productivity that will make the process more effective, will generate income and jobs.

Stone paper offers an interesting complement to the market, but it does not absorb humidity. It is therefore necessary to go beyond the simple reuse of waste. In recent decades, our research has always included multiple options and bamboo has appeared as a gift from nature. The construction of the bamboo pavilion at the universal exhibition of 2000 in Germany marked a turning point, not only for the use of bamboo as the basic ingredient of paper, but also as a more efficient building material than any other alternative. This is the new era of vegetable steel.

10. Housing

• »During the last half century, the world housing stock increased roughly at the same pace as the population. If governments do not undertake again to provide housing, this situation may worsen, because housing needs in the world should almost double over the next 50 years, and those of Africa and the means -Orient should be multiplied by more than three. »(P. 69-70)

If the current concept of accommodation is maintained, it will be difficult to meet the demand. On the other hand, if we introduce the concept of "growing your own house", then there is a chance to succeed. Unfortunately, the construction of housing in the world is excessively inspired by construction systems which dominate the regions of the world characterized by a temperate climate. Unfortunately, these construction systems have served as a model in the world in development, resulting in excessive consumption of steel, glass and cement.

The concept introduced by Zeri offers the possibility of building a social and sustainable house using bamboo. Bamboo is widely available, there are more than 1,000 species. The project of the Colombian architect Simon Velez allows us to offer a cheap, functional and beautiful house of 65 square meters, using no more than 150 bamboo. The culture of his own house therefore does not require more than 75 square meters. The harvest can be done after 12 months, depending on the type of bamboo used. Bamboo conservation can be ensured with pyrolytic acid from the same bamboo, which is a stimulant for entrepreneurs, and which eliminates toxic substances (imported) against fungi and insects, used to protect tropical materials. Bamboo, and other tropical materials, treated with its own acids is not only beautiful in its color, it strengthens its structure, it has a guarantee of more than 50 years. The Japanese even offer a hundred years warranty.

The passage of steel, cement, asbestos and glass to a building dominated by tropical building materials which grow quickly on degraded floors offers an overview of the way in which millions of homes could be answered without having to spend money and energy in non -tropical materials. The experience of Latin America, which is repeated in Africa, is a good basis. The quantity of bamboo required can easily be provided in the context of degraded and contaminated land recovery programs.

Bamboo offers a unique option, which has been deployed worldwide, generating thousands of jobs.

11. Climate change

• »During the last half century, carbon emissions due to fossil fuel combustion have been multiplied by four, increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide by 30 % compared to pre-industrial levels. The hottest 15 years ever recorded have all taken place since 1979. ”(P. 73))

The inversion of the risk of climate change accompanied by intense heat waves, droughts and more severe floods, more destructive storms, more extensive forest fires requires an innovative portfolio of "productive means" to sequester and/or reuse massively greenhouse gases.

Methane recovery, a greenhouse gas 21 times worse than carbon dioxide, through the porch digesters described above, is a first step. Breeding is recognized as the second largest source of methane gas. First of all, we seem to blame the bad kind. First of all, it is up to human beings to provide a better diet that does not generate such large amounts of gas. Numerous waste from industrial processes, such as used cereals, lead to an increase in gas production. If we change food or include healthy ingredients like seaweed, then cows and pigs do not produce the same amount of methane. Then, if gas is produced, we should find ways to capture and use it, giving it value instead of simply letting it evaporate in the air.

The sequestration of carbon dioxide has been the subject of long debates. It has given rise to reforestation programs around the world. But when we know that giant herbs like bamboo on earth and varech in the sea, which formerly formed massive forests in Africa, Asia and Latin America, sequests up to 40 times more carbon dioxide per square meter and per year as trees. One wonders why these fast growing biota was not fashionable. Whenever energy companies announce a reforestation program to compensate for their excessive emissions, they only think of a pine and eucalyptus. One of the reasons can be the simple ignorance of the biodiversity of nature, the decision -makers being thus guided by what they know about their own temperate climate. Another reason seems to be that there is a well -known economic use of wood, but that those who live in the world regions subject to four seasons are not aware of the massive and durable uses of bamboo fibers, nor the forests of Varech .

Brazil is, after China and Russia, the third largest asbestos consumer in the world. Asbestos has not been replaced by synthetic alternatives because they are more expensive. Asbestos being widely used in social housing, there was no political leadership to impose a more expensive roof in exchange for a healthier living environment. If all the asbestos of Brazil was replaced by bamboo fibers, Brazil should then reforest and the annual harvest of around 4 million hectares of bamboo. This would kidnap the equivalent of 160 million hectares of fast growing pine forests. If Colombia was to replace its asbestos - imported from Canada - it would need, thanks to its most effective Guada species, about 100,000 hectares, or 4 million hectares of trees. China, a country of bamboo par excellence, would absorb all the carbon dioxide it emits to meet the energy needs if this option was retained.

The bamboo forests formerly covered large parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America. When the Spanish colonizers arrived on the highlands of South America, they found huge bamboo forests. In fact, the regions known today for coffee were formerly covered with bamboo. Bamboo fibers, as a reinforcement material in cement, have a long economic lifespan, which guarantees that carbon is not immediately released in the atmosphere. Everyone agrees that asbestos must be eliminated for health reasons, but if Latin America, Africa and Asia continue to use this toxic mineral, or its costly synthetic substitute, we have a great opportunity to reverse climate change.

Bamboo is not the only species to be promoted, but as there are some 1,200 bamboo species, one could identify one for almost every type of climate, with the exception of temperate and cold climates. In all key regions of the world where asbestos is used, local bamboo species are available. The most attractive element may be the fact that bamboo species do not need rich soil and therefore do not compete with agriculture. Steep hills, eroded terrains, brownfields loaded with heavy metals, we can identify the main areas of the world which have no economic utility. The bamboo not only recovers the earth by creating a new layer of humus, it also helps to resume the hydrological cycle, by reintroducing the groundwater which had been debilitated due to the mismanagement of the arable layer and vegetation. 

None of the objectives set in all possible agreements has been achieved. We abstain from participating in major meetings and we focus on the implementation of projects that are always based on the principle of the absence of emissions. In 2001, it was decided to release the brand and make it available to everyone for free use.

12. Materials 

• "From 1950 to 1988, the captures of ocean fish rose from 19 million to 88 million tonnes, a much faster growth than that of the population. The sockets per capita increased from less than 8 kilograms in 1950 to the historic peak of 17 kilograms in 1988, more than double. Since 1988, however, the growth in captures has slowed down and has become lower than that of the population. Between 1988 and 1997, taken by person fell to just over 16 kilograms, a drop of about 4 %. (P. 49)

Since the current model of production and consumption only uses a small fraction of each of the materials produced by the land or extracted from it, there is little chance of meeting the needs of the population, not to mention massive waste production. When the soluble part of the coffee tree, which ends up in a cup of coffee, does not represent more than 0.2 %, it is not surprising that the coffee farmer has trouble reaching both ends. Farmers are subject to volatile variations in international market prices. When the long fibers of Sisal and Fique represent only 2 % and the rest is wasted, it is not surprising that the synthetic alternative quickly seizes the market. The list of massive waste production is long.

The use of bamboo for construction in the tropical highlands offers a very different perspective: a 20 -meter long bamboo can be used almost 100 %. The main part of the upper - about 9 meters long - is used as (1) Structural building material, (2) The arch -shaped roots serve as a support, (3) The top of the bamboo is used for small decorations , (4) The rest of the upper is used as fuel for the vaccination process, (5) The sheets are used for the cultivation of fungi, and (6) the twigs also end in the fire in the cutting of vaccination. It was estimated that the wood used in the construction of an American house rarely represents more than 20 % of the biomass generated originally by the tree. The full use of tropical materials offers a clear vision of the way in which the production model of the future will be much better capable of meeting the urgent needs of the population.

The same logic applies to beer, generally produced in urban centers. Drêches are now shipped to livestock breeders located hundreds of kilometers, or simply discharge, even cremated. This option is not ideal. It would be enough to add a bakery to the brewery to recover all the proteins which would be otherwise lost. The book "Upsizing" (Pauli, 1998) offers hundreds of examples of how our current ineffective use of materials can be reversed, leading to a new economy where the productive use of all components is certain to lead to a fundamental reversal of current trends.

This has crystallized in the basic principle: use what you have, and generate value.

13. Urbanization

• “The cities of the world grow faster than its population. In 1950, 760 million people worldwide lived in cities. In 1998, this figure had at least tripled, reaching more than 2.7 billion. The number of people who should live in cities by 2050, or 6.2 billion, exceeds the current world population ”(p. 81).

The main reversal to be designed is the inversion of the current push of the countryside to the cities, to first move to a freezing of the campaigns and finally to a return to rural areas. The current rural exodus is the result of a lack of opportunities visible in the countryside, because the already small plots of land are divided, then divided again at each generation, until they become so small that People can no longer imagine how to live with the current production model, which is only focused on a single material and rejects everything else as waste. There are some cases that demonstrate that the trend can be reversed.

The average size of a Colombian coffee farm fell to 1.6 ha, against 4.5 ha only 25 years ago. It is difficult to survive with a family on such a small plot of land, by cultivating only coffee. But if you can grow mushrooms on the leaves, twigs and coffee boxes, you can generate a first additional additional income flow. If, in addition, one can give value to bamboo that grow along the streams in steep hills where it is not possible to cultivate coffee, adding value by a simple immunization technique, another income can be assured. Floor erosion can be fought by planting lemongrass along the roots, which is a popular essential oil whose demand is global. A family member could become an expert in bamboo constructions, another in immunization, another in mushrooms, another in essential oils and of course we keep the expertise in coffee. The integrated coffee farm will be very different from the current fazenda where the farmer has trouble imagining how to survive. The family does not extend its land, or diversify in new areas. It simply uses what it has and what can be used in a productive way. Time has come for humanity to become a real "homo sapiens".

The development of Las Gaviotas in the Colombian Llanos has created a sustainable community of 11,000 hectares from nothing. If we managed to do the same in 6 million hectares of the Colombian and Venezuelan savannah, which is confronted with the same challenge, it would then be possible to create some 120,000 jobs while massively wood. The development of the Northern and the Amazon regions of Brazil according to similar principles is not only technically achievable, it is even underpinned by a strong economic logic. If the creation of jobs and added value is sufficiently demonstrated by the sustainable use of all the resources, it will then be possible not only to keep people happy in the countryside, but also to attract more families so that they Establish a durable means of subsistence, instead of facing a dark future in overcrowded cities.

The search for ever higher productivity in the state of the para led to the closure of some 11 wood mills. As these factories were located in the heart of the forest, it is difficult to imagine an alternative job creation to this unsustainable use of a natural protected resource at the international level. However, the reuse of water hyacinth to reconstruct the soil, the harvesting of tropical/medicinal mushrooms and the transformation of mushrooms cultivated using pieces of the old sawmill give a clear idea of ​​the way in which jobs can Being created, but above all the way it is possible to restore an environment that has suffered from human intrusion.
Although this approach is not achievable overnight and sometimes has decades to prove its viability, as in the case of Las Gaviotas, it is these pioneering efforts that allow the emergence of a new vision.

This is why new projects like El Hierro discuss the power of re-ruralization, instead of studying urbanization and its effects on life and communities. It is necessary to strengthen the livelihoods of rural communities.

14. Protected natural spaces

• "The population growth of the last 50 years has made it difficult to reserve and conservation of natural areas. Another half-century of growth will exert even more pressure on protected areas, while formerly small and distant establishments encroach on these sites and the number of people who use them explodes. »(P. 85)

The main drawback of protected natural areas is that they have been closed to human activity. Worse, the only authorized economic initiative is the introduction of tourism, which, in many cases, offers the highest and fastest economic yields, but which, on the other hand, also has a negative impact.

The sustainable economic use of protected natural areas is a necessity. While the omnipresence of humans should not be encouraged, selective and well -targeted activities can be undertaken in order to guarantee the long -term viability of these areas. The Sierra Nevada Natural Park of Santa Martha, where the highest coastal mountain range in the world is located, which amounts to some 5,900 meters from the seaside, houses one of the richest biodiversity in the globe Thanks to its multiple microclimates. This is also where the lost city is. However, the park and archaeological sites are closed to the public. Although it is necessary to recognize the reasons of security linked to illicit drugs, the park is home to a unique collection of orchids that could be multiplied and sold at very high prices on international markets. It also houses medicinal fungi that can be harvested without any risk of damage to the environment.

UNESCO's exceptional initiatives concerning man and the world's biosphere and cultural heritage give an overview of the problems that are created and the opportunities that are missed. There is no doubt that the simple preservation of these areas does not offer a survival guarantee. A targeted strategy for sustainable economic activities can relieve pressure through the generation of income, while providing the funds necessary for real preservation of areas.

We have moved from protection to the regeneration of nature reserves, designing ways to put nature back on the path of evolution.

15. Education

• »The global need for teachers and classrooms will increase very slowly over the next quarter of a century and will then decrease. Globally, the total population is expected to increase by 47 percent between 2000 and 2050, but the number of children under the age of 15 will actually decrease by around 3 percent. »(P. 89))

Current teaching methods are clearly insufficient to provide people with the tools necessary to become autonomous in their daily needs. The education system which "exposes but does not impose", which "reaches but does not teach" as it is applied by the Zeri Foundation (and others) offers a chance to reverse the current trends leading to the 'Insufficient autonomy. The exercise carried out at the Montfort Boys Town of Fiji indicates that when children not only learn a trade, but also acquire the ability to provide their own food and energy after having graduated and returned to one of the 600 inhabited islands From Fiji, they have a chance to find comfort and quality of life in the remote regions of the globe.

The same approach has recently been introduced into the colonies of orphans infected with HIV in Mutare, Zimbabwe. The strategy to guarantee that people are not content to get a diploma, learn to read and write, but that they also acquire the ability to eat, drink, treat themselves and even accommodate themselves , even in the most unfavorable conditions, is probably one of the best remedies against poverty and one of the best contributions of education in local communities that one can imagine.

The education program turned out to be an astonishing exercise in the development of a new pedagogy that has meanwhile been adopted in China. There, all fables are distributed to all schools, and books are recognized by the Alibaba Foundation as the best books on the nature of the country.

16.Dechets

“The data relating to the production of waste in the developing world is rare, but it is estimated that citizens of many of these countries produce about half a Kilo of municipal waste per day. If this figure is applied to the current population, 824 million tonnes of municipal waste is produced each year in developing countries. The only population growth would make this figure pass to 1.4 billion tonnes by 2050. But a development world producing as much waste per capita as industrial countries today produce some 3.4 billion tonnes of municipal waste by 2050 ”(p. 93-95).

The reconversion of old disused cement factories, as is the case in Stockholm (Sweden) and as it is planned in Colombia and Brazil, offers the possibility of fundamentally rethink the waste problem.
On the one hand, disused factories that symbolize social and environmental disasters are capable of converting to local development engines, while making agriculture and forestry the fertile land that had been removed to them. The cement plant transformed into compost will also ensure that there is no leachate, that excess carbon dioxide is completely recovered and that CO2 and heat can be used for salad cultivation and tomatoes all year round at competitive prices.

As most cement factories are equipped with silos and quays, truck transport can be reduced drastically, while the production cost of the compost can be reduced to the point of perfectly competing with synthetic fertilizers. With a production of 500 to 1,000 tonnes per day, the link between urban and rural areas is not only secure, but also economically beneficial. The problem is not production, but rather the challenge of finding buyers on the market.

The program launched by Bedminster in Sweden and developed by Taiheiyo Cement in Japan gives an overview of the potential offered by solid municipal waste and identifies the problems related to waste that must be treated as a priority. It is clear that there is no immediate and complete solution, but the accumulation, for example, of human organic waste in layers, makes it possible to search for a compostable plastic solution. Barely a few months after the launch of the Bedminster composting program in Stockholm, a group of entrepreneurs launched a composable layer which immediately received an enthusiastic reception from the market. Indeed, everyone agrees that given that the content must be natural and that its use is limited to a few hours, it is not logical to pack it in three different plastics which not only contaminate, But also make the composting of its content impossible.

The combination of the sectors in order to ensure the transformation of waste into resources has been implemented in various constellations: the cement and composting of the organic component of the solid municipal waste (DSM) were supplemented by the mixture of sludge from stations to stations 'Wastewater purification with DSMs in order to generate gas in a volume such that the sums won covers all wastewater treatment expenses while half reducing the waste put in landfill.

17.CONFLITS

 “Throughout history, demographic growth has worked in tandem with socio-economic and political disturbances to switch unstable situations. Demographic growth makes things more precarious. (P. 97)

Zeri is actively working in one of the most violent companies in the world: Colombia. While the country is in the grip of a manifest social, economic and environmental crisis, it is also the nation where most efforts are undertaken to transform the current economic model into a production and consumption system whose world could 'inspire. Las Gaviotas in Vichada does not only operate in an environmental degraded area, it is hostile to its inhabitants, especially due to the lack of quality drinking water, responsible for 70% of diseases. It is also the area where guerrilla warfare and paramilitaries are the most active.

However, this is precisely where a new self -sufficient society emerges. A company based on bicycle transport. If we used a car, the guerrillas would take it under the threat of a weapon, and if the guerrillas do not take the car under the threat of a weapon, then the paramilitaries are convinced that we collaborate with the guerrilla warfare , and can simply assassinate you. The bicycle is therefore the symbol of a non -violent society, since neither the guerrillas nor the paramilitaries are interested in the bicycle.

Colombian highlands have remained an island of peace. But with a drop in the price of coffee estimated at 17 % and increasing pressure on the use of land due to the demographic explosion, there is a persistent danger that the regions that have remained stable fall into the insurrection. This is why a particular effort is undertaken in parallel: one in Vichada where violence is already rampant, and the other in the areas which, hopefully, will never fall into aggression. The determining factor is simple: meet the urgent needs of the population in terms of food, water, health care, shelters and jobs.

Zeri programs include an innovative method to ensure conflict resolution. This article was published on the Blue Economy website.

The zeri programs include an innovative way to ensure conflict resolution. This has been published on the Blue Economy Website.

18. Meat production

“World meat production increased from 44 million tonnes in 1950 to 216 million tonnes in 1998, growth almost twice as fast as that of the population. The total consumption of meat would drop from 216 million tonnes to 481 million tonnes in 2050, a gain of 265 million tonnes. If we assume an average of 3 kg of cereals per kilo of meat produced, this would require nearly 800 million tonnes of additional grain food in 2050, an amount equal to half the current world consumption of cereals ”( p.

The emphasis on a simple conversion of vegetable proteins into animal protein is the main bottleneck. There is a third source of protein that remains completely unused: mushroom proteins. It is quite difficult to understand how it was possible that the world refrains from paying attention to this rich resource in nutrients, minerals and vitamins. After cultivating mushrooms on coffee waste or rice straw, cellulose, otherwise difficult to digest, has been decomposed and the substrate is enriched with protein. Mycelium contains up to 38 % protein, which allows direct consumption by livestock (when there is no wood), or indirect use (from wood substrates) by cultivation of worms of earth, which are rich in protein.

Agriculture rejects millions of tonnes of straw, pods, pellets, and there are massive resources in the wild as weeds, such as water hyacinthe, bamboo and rattan (which cannot be given directly to cattle). All this can be converted into cattle foods thanks to fungal treatment. The potential is quite impressive, the technique is quite simple. Conversion could be complete in a few weeks in a tropical climate. If you want to keep a mushroom diet, fruiting would be possible in less than a month of inoculation. This process offers one of the most effective animal feed generators and foodstuffs, with a unique capacity to adapt to consumer preferences in terms of vegetarian and non -vegetarian diets.

This process requires a conversion of the production model, but it offers a chance to guarantee a minimum supply of animal protein to billions of people who today have no access to proteins, whatever the source. If, from a health point of view, it is insane to be content to convert vegetable and fungal proteins into animal protein, this allows us at least to glimpse at the end of the tunnel that it is possible to meet the needs of this Critical mass of people.

Food programs widen the portfolio of plants or animals, to include mushrooms and algae. This approach is also inspired by the fact that the speed of passage from seed to food is much faster than what plant or animal can imagine. In terms of ability to produce nutrition, algae and fungi offer a multiple. This offers a perspective on food systems that could one day eliminate hunger.

19. Income

 “Global economic production, that is to say the total of all goods and services produced, increased from 6,000 billion in 1950 to 39,000 billion in 1998, growth almost three times that of the population. The growth in production between 1990 and 1998 exceeded that of the 10,000 years sold between the start of agriculture and 1950. If the economy was to develop only to cover population growth until 2050, it should reach 59,000 billions. If the economy should continue to develop at the rate of 3 % per year, global economic production would reach 183,000 billion in 2050. ”(P. 105-108)

The economy grows at an almost record rate. The bad news is that the economy, as it is currently structured, goes beyond the ecosystem of the earth. This is due to the fact that we have a model of production and linear consumption, focused on the main activities, which completely neglects the need for material productivity, both in terms of production and consumption.

If the economic model finally fully exploits all raw materials, and if it completely uses the energy production potential in a cascade, then the economy will be able to respond to this dramatic demographic explosion to which we must do anyway face. Paradoxically, the only industry that uses almost 100 % raw materials provided by the land is the petroleum and petrochemical industry. The largest non -renewable industry dominates the global economy, deriving some 100,000 products from a single gross source. It does one of the most effective uses of its available resources worldwide.

If all the processing industries cracked raw materials with the same efficiency as the oil industry, then we would have a huge revolution in productivity, providing more goods and services never imagined, while creating millions of jobs (and So income), making it possible to meet the unsatisfied massive demand, as evidenced by the billion people who survive absolute poverty. It is this increase in productivity that will generate the income that will allow the poor to buy the products that these bioraffineries will produce.

The first biraffineries were imagined in the 1990s and are now implemented. These projects, whose investments amount to hundreds of millions, testify to the desire to invest in new production models offering farmers a higher income in the world market price. Finally, this will allow us to reverse the trend that farmers, fishermen and minors are most poorly paid when they must be the guards of our ecosystems.

20. Conclusion

The current economic model is unable to meet the needs of the world's population because it simply does not apply its own theory. It is difficult to understand that one focuses on the productivity of labor and capital, while massively and in a massively and myoping natural resources. Economists and executives demonstrate an advanced state of "non -sapian homo", people who simply do not seem to know how to meet the needs of people with available resources.

The change in the structure of production and consumption is the biggest challenge. It is neither more nor less of a overhaul of the economy, a real challenge of relegation. The production of additional goods and services must go hand in hand with the creation of added value, which leads to the generation of income and jobs. Insofar as unemployment is massive and where dissatisfied needs are unrivaled, the world has a unique opportunity to design and evolve towards a production system capable of meeting the needs of the population. The concept of bioraffinery, promoted by Professor Carl-Goran Heden, is essential to this conversion of the economic model.

It is clear that we cannot count on a central organ, an intelligent brain capable of considering this for everyone, all over the world. The production model which must be installed must evolve according to simple principles of nature: "everything that lives creates waste, but no waste is wasted". What is not useful to one is an input for the other, and thus the system regenerates thanks to the permanent contribution of solar energy. This offers the essential conditions that reduce poverty at first, and generate a quality of life thereafter.
The rapid and successful implementation of this new production and consumption model depends primarily on a general decentralization of production, distribution and decision -making. If the nature model is imitated, the countless ineffectiveness of the current centralized system will be eliminated. Local jobs and income will be generated, and the problems of massive waste that dominate the concentrations of people will gradually evaporate.

The emphasis on total productivity (work, capital and raw materials) allows us to imagine an economy that generates more jobs, more income, more products while reducing waste to nothing. It is the 21st century socio-economic model. He does not imply any revolution in economic theory, he simply plans to apply what Adam Smith (Smith 1776) has so clearly considered more than two centuries ago.

It is now that we finally have the possibility of rethinking and conceiving an economy that contributes to the common good.

Brown, Lester and Gary Gardner
References Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge. Norton Press, New York, USA, 1999, 168 p. Pauli, Gunter. Upsizing: The Road to Zero Emissions - More Income, More Jobs and Zero Pollution. Greenleaf Publications, London, UK, 1998, 224 p.
Smith, Adam. The Wealth of Nations. 1776

Gunter Pauli (1956) has an economist training. He worked for five years with Dr. Aurelio Peccei, founder of the Rome club and was the publisher of the State of the World Report, the flagship publication of the Worldwatch Institute for several European languages. He organized presentations to Lester Brown before the national parliaments of Europe and the European Parliament.
He contributed to the creation of the Worldwatch Institute Europe. He is the author of +20 books that
have been published in +40 languages. His books testify to a permanent and creative search for a new production model to meet the needs of populations, especially in developing countries.