In April 1991, I published a lengthy treatise on the state of the world. My writing was inspired by Lester Brown's book, which painted a grim picture of the harsh realities we face. As I was preparing the participation of the ZERI Foundation (then still a Swiss organization established in cooperation with the United Nations Development Programme and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development) in the World Expo, I wanted to outline a series of solutions. While I shared Lester Brown's stark insights, I disagreed with his predictions. I was—and remain—convinced that we can change course! In the context of the global lockdown imposed by virologists, I suggest you read point 7 on page 16 to understand the real health challenges we face.

April 6, 2020

RETURN TO ADAM SMITH

There is light at the end of the tunnel

Article by Gunter Pauli,
July 1999

Introduction to the reissue 21 years later

When this article caught my attention during this period of stagnation, I realized what a methodological approach can teach us about how to envision the future. Here are the observations I made more than twenty years ago, when I was preparing to present the concept of the blue economy and the standard that zero emissions and zero waste are the starting point, not an end goal.

1. Economics is not a science. Unfortunately, I must now conclude that many of the traditional sciences, such as biology and chemistry, are in dire need of fundamental revision. As I have said, most degrees that are more than 20 years old have passed their expiration date. A fundamental revision of what we teach our children is necessary.

2. Pollution as a parameter of success. It is astonishing that we have exploited the common good to the point of its collapse and that the few remaining pockets of nature are threatened because our objective was to protect, and we never had a standard requiring regeneration.

3. Go beyond reduction. Indeed, we need an economic model that regenerates, uses what is available locally and ensures the resilience of communities to meet all basic needs.

I therefore invite you to read this article and perhaps pay particular attention to the section on page 16, which deals with infectious diseases. The text in blue represents my updates.

In a magnificent, informative, and relevant publication titled "Beyond Malthus," Lester Brown and his colleagues at the Worldwatch Institute provide a stunning summary of the 20 challenges the world faces as its population continues to grow for at least another half-century. The projections are bleak, and reasons for hope are limited, especially when one considers that everything we do today will not be enough to improve the dire situation of the billions of people living in poverty, deprived of even the most basic services such as water, food, healthcare, housing, energy, and employment.

Nothing has changed! We've simply changed the Millennium Development Goals into Sustainable Development Goals after failing to change the reality for the majority of the poor. We know that the richest have become much richer and that the gap between rich and poor continues to widen.

The prevailing model of production and consumption is clearly incapable of meeting the needs of all the world's communities. This does not appear to be a deliberate inequality, but rather a case of ignorance about how to do better. The methods employed to produce goods and services are profoundly wasteful and have yet to incorporate the efficiencies inherent in nature. Worse still, production engineers are confident in their productivity success, which they consider superior to nature's. The desire to produce more, faster, has led to a processing system where chemicals, pressure, and temperature are used to isolate a component, while the rest is considered waste. The pressure to consume more, more often, has led to a wasteful society drowning in its own garbage.

The ability to produce much more with less is the foundation of homo economicus and represents the heart and soul of economics. While everyone agrees that the primary objective and contribution of economics is its pursuit of productivity and efficiency, responding to market needs, it is clear that it still has a long way to go before it can claim to have approached this goal. Economics is a science still operating in the Stone Age, at a time when humanity has already entered the Space Age.

If economists were to seek a new production model based on systems inspired by nature, that imitate it and function in harmony with it, then this science would likely succeed in providing the minimum goods and services to all the inhabitants of the planet without depleting the Earth's limited resources, without causing the collapse of the ecosystem on which we depend.
The main reason the current economic model is incapable of doing just that is that it does not apply the most basic rules provided by its own theory: implementing an ever more productive way of combining labor, capital, and raw materials through the continuous introduction of innovations that rely on a unique human characteristic—creativity.

This article, inspired by and responding to Lester Brown's analysis that has motivated me for so many years, revisits the assessments of the Worldwatch Institute and suggests how some of the trends might change if economists applied their own theory. Since the Worldwatch Institute's mission is to promote the development of an environmentally sustainable society, the analyses presented here might contribute to these goals in a novel way.

The key to changing the macroeconomic framework is to design new business models that move away from everything taught in MBA programs.

Economic theory

Economics is barely considered a science by physicists, biologists, chemists, and even engineers have their doubts. These reservations are well-founded. No other science demonstrates such a discrepancy in its practical application between what it does and what it prescribes and teaches. Worse still, while all the sciences, from psychology to biology, have evolved toward a systemic approach, economists remain, in practice, at the microeconomic level, generically called management science, with an impressive linearity. It is therefore all the more surprising to observe the extent of the influence that economics and management have acquired in our society.

The first flaw in economics in practice is that it focuses on only two of the three main factors of production. Economic theory dictates that homo economicus seeks the most efficient combination of three factors of production: labor, capital, and raw materials. But by analyzing what business schools teach and observing what companies actually do, it becomes clear that the pursuit of productivity focuses only on labor (producing more with fewer people) and capital (obtaining better returns with less risk). The concept of material productivity is largely ignored. The result of such an incomplete approach is that the economy produces more added value per employee, obtains better returns for capital, and eliminates jobs. This leads to the false assumption that an increase in productivity goes hand in hand with an increase in unemployment.

It is quite astonishing that this positive correlation between higher productivity and higher unemployment has become a widely accepted phenomenon. Economists hope that, over time, new innovations and the identification of new business opportunities will ensure a slow but steady absorption of a significant portion of the population into the workforce. The reality is quite different. While never before in history have so many people had jobs, never before in history have so many people been desperately seeking employment.

While in Europe and Japan, it is hoped that negative population growth will eventually resolve the problem in about a generation, economists seem to overlook the fact that such a laissez-faire attitude sends a most dramatic message to 20% of the world's population and roughly 40% of young people: society doesn't need you! Wealthy nations can indeed afford such an attitude. Transferring purchasing power through taxation can mitigate the difficulties created by such an insensitive approach to unemployment. Developing countries, on the other hand, know all too well that high unemployment rates among the younger generation, which can represent up to 60% of society, pave the way for violence, insurrection, and even the disintegration of civil society.

Nothing has changed. The harsh reality is that high unemployment rates, combined with irreversible environmental degradation and the disintegration of civil society (war), lead to an exodus that results in a large-scale migration where people risk everything to reach "the other side".

Pollution as a success factor

The emphasis on labor and capital productivity not only leads to high levels of unemployment, but is also the primary reason why the current production model is so polluting and why product consumption generates so much waste. The fact that the economy and management are capable, but unprepared, to meet society's needs through a systemic approach results in a massive loss of resources, manifested in waste, water and air pollution, landfills, incinerators, and illegal dumps.

In the 1950s, success was measured by the number of chimneys, the brownish color of the local river, and the smiles on the black faces of the workers. Today, industrial success is projected onto society by trees and flowers, animals and blue skies. We know the truth is quite different. More than 100,000 synthetic products offer great comfort and luxury, but also generate problems we have yet to begin to understand. Packaging increasingly overshadows the product's contents, and more energy is expended transporting food than the nutrients it could ever provide to the consumer. This is not simply a critique of the current economic model, but merely an indication that we are far from achieving what we set out to be our ultimate goal: to do more with less.

In a systems approach, we can imagine how the waste products of one process can evolve into a resource for other processes. We only need to observe a tree to know that it could never survive without the fungi and earthworms that transform its fallen leaves into humus, and without the droppings of birds that feed on its fruit mineralizing the water and providing additional nutrients. The modern, linear, and extremely simplified industrial version of the tree would dictate gathering all the leaves of the forest at a central point, where all the fungi and earthworms would then congregate, after which we would try to produce new leaves... which would never work. Each tree has its own ecosystem that recovers all the nutrients and energy it needs through a complex system, ultimately allowing the tree to continue growing and reproducing. This lesson from nature makes it all too clear that a recycling society, or a closed-loop economy, has no chance of cleaning up the environment, generating the necessary added value, and will therefore never stand the test of time. The constant recycling of nutrients in a closed loop creates "mad cow disease" in animals, and incest leads to human degeneration. Why are we trying to recycle in a closed system, feeding off our own tails?

It is necessary to design systems that are (1) complex and (2) open, which should not be difficult. The result will be a dramatic improvement in efficiency, enabling the introduction of the 10/60 rule, replacing the traditional 80/20 rule that dominated economic thinking during the last century. The 10/90 rule states that by using just 10% of the available space, all the waste from a process can be processed and 90% of the total revenue generated. This ability to generate added value from "nothing," using little space, creates jobs, thus providing a simple logic for a basic economic principle: increased productivity generates more jobs, and this is only possible when we utilize all available materials. When we have succeeded in fully utilizing all available materials and energy, the production model will have reached its optimum. If the production model has reached its optimum, then there will be no more pollution and we will have achieved the goal of zero emissions and zero waste. This is an effort that will never stop.

Beyond reducing waste and pollution

The major advantage of this production model, based on what Adam Smith taught us two centuries ago, is not simply the elimination of waste, nor the creation of jobs. The major advance of this approach is that it allows us to consider how society can meet its needs: water, food, housing, healthcare, and energy. If economists move toward systems thinking, managers can become systems practitioners, and society will harness this formidable human energy rooted in its creativity, crystallizing its desire to offer a better future to generations to come.

The emphasis on total productivity, which gives equal attention to labor, capital, and raw materials, leads to a synergy that surpasses the potential achievements of a productivity program focused on only one or two of these three key components. However, it's crucial to remember that while it's possible to develop productivity programs for capital and labor within the agricultural industry or process itself, it's impossible to do so for raw materials, waste, or weeds. Opportunities must be sought outside the core business.

A productivity program that targets raw materials, waste, and weeds goes beyond simple recovery and recycling. The pursuit of productivity involves seeking added value and optimizing the multiple outputs of a complete system with a given input. It goes beyond recovering heavy metals after consumption; it goes beyond extracting more cellulose from an existing tree; it goes beyond organic farming, eliminating chemicals. It is a production process that aims to fully utilize all components, again and again, so that nothing is wasted. And this can only be achieved through industry clusters.

While recycling programs are well-established, the design of a system that fully utilizes all inputs is surprisingly applied only in the petroleum industry. No other industry cracks molecules with such precision that almost everything is ultimately utilized. Interestingly, the oil and petrochemical industry is unique in its continuous search for new uses for its exceptional product and its ongoing efforts to add value to its molecule cracking process. It is therefore not surprising that it can be far more competitive than similar products made from renewable sources. Natural products are always more expensive because the focus is typically on only one component, with the rest considered waste.

Applying systems design principles to economics and management, and introducing productivity strategies for raw materials, waste, and weeds, can help us see the light at the end of the tunnel, which is dark and unpromising. Here are some reflections on these points, using Lester Brown's treatise "Beyond Malthus" as a reference. The 19 areas for reflection are:

1. Cereal production
2. Fresh water
3. Biodiversity
4. Energy
5. Fishing
6. Jobs
7. Infectious diseases
8. Farmland
9. Forests
10. Housing
11. Climate change
12. Materials
13. Urbanization
14. Protected natural areas
15. Education
16. Waste
17. Conflicts
18. Meat production
19. Income

Pollution as a success factor

Pollution as a success factor

1. Cereal production

• "From 1950 to 1984, the growth in the cereal harvest easily outpaced that of the population, increasing the per capita harvest from 247 to 342 kilograms. In the 14 years that followed, the growth in the cereal harvest fell behind that of the population, causing per capita production to plummet from its historical peak in 1984 to an estimated 312 kilograms in 1998 – a decline of 9 percent." (p. 33)

Given that cereals, rice, maize, and other important crops are suffering from declining per capita production, and that there appears to be no prospect of increasing access to new land, irrigation, and fertilizers, we must seek alternative ways to boost nutrient production. Since each of these crops produces ten times its original yield of straw, husks, ears, and other byproducts, which are almost always left to rot in the field, burned, generating carbon dioxide, or simply used for cleaning barns, their productive value is extremely underutilized.

By operating in clusters of production, one can imagine how all this agro-industrial waste can—for example—be transformed into substrates for mushrooms. Straw (Volvariella volvacea) and oyster mushrooms (Pleurotus spp.) fruit in ambient conditions, especially in warm and humid climates, precisely the regions where food demand is lower than needs. Since the quantity of straw is at least 10 times greater than that of cereals, one can estimate a potential of 18.5 billion tons of straw. If a biological conversion rate of 50% is achieved, this yields 9.25 billion tons of mushrooms (at 90% moisture), or an additional 1.5 billion tons when dry. And the used substrate makes excellent feed for chickens.

Since both mushroom species mentioned would fruit within weeks of inoculation, nutrients would be available for immediate distribution and consumption. Additional land use could be limited to 10% of the land available for agriculture, thus generating multiple returns. The mushrooms can be dried and stored for consumption for 2 to 3 years without any preservatives.
While Latin America lacks a mushroom consumption culture, Africa and Asia both have long traditions of harvesting and cooking mushrooms. The rich biodiversity of fungi, which remains to be discovered and understood, is one of the greatest potential areas for expanding food resources.

The program to transform agricultural waste into mushrooms now includes approximately 5,000 initiatives worldwide. It's a success... and a failure. The potential is at least one million production units, and this could become a significant driver of employment and health in local communities.

2. Fresh water

"Wherever the population increases, the supply of fresh water per person decreases. Due to population growth, the amount of water available per person from the hydrological cycle will decrease by 73% between 1950 and 2050. Worldwide, approximately 70% of the water pumped from the ground or diverted from rivers is used for irrigation, and 20% is used for industrial purposes." (p. 37)

The primary use of water for agriculture can be described as highly inefficient. Studying water use in challenging conditions, such as the Namib Desert, provides a basis for inspiration on how to achieve the same results with a fraction of the water. Welwitschia mirabilis, the oldest living plant on Earth, has survived in the Namib Desert for over 2,000 years, allowing ruminants to chew its leaves as a source of moisture. This plant and insects in the same ecosystem are experts at harvesting moisture from the air. No matter the region of the world, there is always moisture in the air. Harvesting fog has become a necessity for survival in Namibia and northern Chile, but represents an untapped opportunity elsewhere. When water was plentiful, there was no need to be creative; when water is scarce, one has no choice but to become ingenious.

One way or another, when humans search for water, faced with the absence of nearby rivers and streams, the only option they consider is to dig a hole. The air around them, even if there hasn't been any rain for weeks or months, is rich in moisture and rarely falls below 15%. Even in these dry conditions, the humidity rises every morning, only to drop to a minimum in the afternoon. Technologies can be developed by drawing inspiration from nature's response to the need to survive in the driest regions of the world.

The application of dried seaweed granules can be used as a soil amendment, providing a first concrete example of how nature can be harnessed to reverse seemingly hopeless climatic conditions. Because seaweed absorbs up to ten times its weight in water, it represents an exceptional source of water retention. In the morning, when air humidity is high, the soil replenishes itself with the water captured in these seaweed granules, which is then slowly released throughout the day.

Seaweed is one of the least exploited resources. The coastal areas of Latin America and Africa, where large population concentrations are found, are also areas where high unemployment affects impoverished communities. It is therefore essential to explore how the need to significantly increase water efficiency in agriculture could stimulate coastal industries, starting with beach cleanups and then planting, harvesting, and processing seaweed. The result is highly beneficial for the soil and crops, but perhaps more importantly, it can increase the absorption of trace elements such as iodine, which are currently lacking in the food chain.

Industry faces a second challenge. As the second-largest consumer of water, the legally mandated, linear approach to water consumption has become a major obstacle. The food processing, wood, and fiber industries are significant water consumers. Every liter of beer requires ten liters of water; every ton of cellulose requires 20 tons of water; every ton of recycled cellulose requires 40 tons of water; every ton of sisal fiber is produced using 30 tons of water. Every kilogram of coffee requires 35 liters of water… The conclusion is clear: there is enormous potential for improvement in water consumption, provided there is a willingness to introduce new treatment technologies.

Washing the coffee reduced wastewater consumption from 40 liters to 0.2 liters per kilogram. All wastewater from a brewery must be used for on-site fish and algae farming, without pH neutralization as required by law. Producing one ton of cellulose from trees can be achieved using only two tons of water by introducing steam explosion technology. It is entirely possible to significantly reduce water consumption in industry if it is made a priority.

The introduction of stone paper has reduced water consumption per ton of paper to virtually zero, without the need for water recycling. Five factories have been built. The introduction of tomato cultivation using condensate has led to the development of an agricultural technique that produces water while growing tomatoes. The first three mega-farms are operational. Algae have become agents of change, notably by capturing microplastics and producing biogas while creating a refuge for juveniles; regenerating biodiversity...

3. Biodiversity

"We are living in the midst of the greatest mass extinction of plant and animal life since the disappearance of the dinosaurs some 65 million years ago, with species losses 100 to 1,000 times greater than the natural rate. The main sources of the current species extinction are all linked to human activities." (p. 41)

While we are witnessing a massive loss of species, a large number of species remain unknown. The second largest kingdom of nature, fungi, comprises approximately 1.5 million species, of which only 5% have been taxonomically described. And of these 80,000 species, scientists have only been able to distinguish males from females in about 15% of cases. It seems there is a need to secure the survival of what we have, but there is an equally urgent need to understand what we still have and to use it productively. While germplasm banks exist for crop seeds, there are no germplasm banks for fungi in Africa and Latin America, two continents that represent approximately 45% of biodiversity. Scientists rightly call for a better seed bank for plant and crop varieties, while fungal species should be urgently added to the wish list.

A deeper understanding of nature's generative capacity is essential. As demonstrated by the Las Gaviotas Environmental Research Center (Colombia), there is a unique ability to create bridges between desolate regions where the environment has degraded, or even where life is threatened, and areas teeming with biodiversity. This unique model of dynamic reproduction deserves closer attention. Not only does it allow us to envision how to protect nature, but it also enables the regeneration of environments that could harbor and replicate the unique reserves that remain available to us. What Las Gaviotas has achieved in Vichada, Colombia, across an area of ​​11,000 hectares, could be replicated in the same region of the world, covering some 6 million hectares.

The advantage of this approach is that biodiversity restoration is self-sustaining. It requires only initial capital equivalent to one million dollars per 1,500 hectares. Additional funding is possible through the production of drinking water, a challenge clearly identified in the previous chapter. If reforestation and water management are effectively combined, two key problems can be addressed simultaneously. Solutions to this challenge can be found.

Las Gaviotas was the first to demonstrate how to regenerate biodiversity—by giving nature a chance. Thanks to the popularization of agricultural techniques like agroforestry and permaculture, we have a better understanding of how to invite the five kingdoms of nature to contribute to food productivity, nutrition, and the cycle of matter. Today, we are witnessing the regeneration of biodiversity in marine forests (kelp forests and other forest ecosystems) and terrestrial forests.

4. Energy

"Over the past half-century, global energy demand has increased more than fivefold—more than twice as fast as population growth. Over the next half-century, global energy demand is expected to continue to rise far beyond population growth, as developing nations try to catch up with industrialized nations." (p. 45)

Numerous renewable energy sources have been studied, but one remains largely untapped, both in developing and industrialized countries: biogas from animal and plant waste. While intensive pig farming poses a major problem in terms of health risks and groundwater nitrification, its energy production potential is largely overlooked.

One thousand pigs produce biogas equivalent to 100 liters of oil, or approximately 36.5 tons of oil equivalent per year. Several countries and regions are home to millions of pigs. These regions could easily convert this waste problem into a significant energy source. In the case of Curitiba, a city proud of its environmental design, there are enough pigs to power all the state's buses with biogas. While the state is currently negotiating the construction of a $90 million gas pipeline from Bolivia, it could instead install a pipeline to the pig farms.

Pigs are not the only source of biogas; water hyacinth, widely considered a pest in Africa, is another significant but largely overlooked potential source. One kilogram of water hyacinth can generate one cubic meter of methane. Considering that there are millions of tons of decomposing water hyacinth in African, Latin American, and Asian lakes, the potential for harnessing this form of energy is enormous.

The digesters needed to transform this manure and plant pests into an energy source are inexpensive and easy to install. Models are available starting at $20 each, but could also cost $2 million for industrial application in Japan. Benin was the first country to adopt the water hyacinth biogas option at the Songhaï Center in Porto Novo. This digester not only provides an excellent energy source but also a high-quality fertilizer. Because water hyacinth recovers all traces of minerals and nutrients that have been washed away into rivers by soil erosion, it allows for the replenishment of what unsuitable agricultural practices have removed.

Transporting the biogas produced by numerous small-scale producers to a central processing facility is considered the major challenge, but one that is entirely solvable. Just as a milk truck collects the cows' milk daily, a tanker truck collects the biogas produced the previous day. Daily collection and daily revenue will ensure daily maintenance. Without revenue, there is no maintenance, a problem that has often led to poor digester performance in rural areas in the past. The gas is used in a limited form on the farm, as it would require a dual energy system. In certain circumstances, it is preferable to make it available to the public transmission system at a competitive price. Simulating the potential in Latin America and Africa using pig farms and water hyacinth offers us a real light at the end of the tunnel.

Then we discovered kelp forests, which also produce massive amounts of biogas. We can meet all of the United States' energy needs with just 3.3 million square kilometers while simultaneously increasing the livelihoods of billions of fish...

5. Fishing

• "From 1950 to 1988, ocean fish catches increased from 19 million to 88 million tonnes, a growth rate much faster than that of the population. Per capita catches rose from less than 8 kilograms in 1950 to a historical peak of 17 kilograms in 1988, more than doubling. Since 1988, however, the growth in catches has slowed and fallen below that of the population. Between 1988 and 1997, per capita catches fell to just over 16 kilograms, a decrease of about 4%." (p. 49)

The Earth's water bodies have an enormous capacity to produce fish protein. Unfortunately, fishing methods used in the open sea and farming methods on land largely neglect the concepts of productivity within a systemic context.

In a modern fish farm, catfish (North American) or tilapia are typically raised, where genetically modified and manipulated native African fish species are treated with hormones to ensure no energy or feed is wasted on egg production. This mix of male and/or castrated fish is raised in shallow ponds, fed special feed supplemented with antibiotics to promote growth and combat potential diseases. The polluted water is constantly depleted of dissolved oxygen, requiring additional energy input. This program not only offers questionable results in terms of food quality and limited profit margins for farmers, but it also fails to utilize the potential of local biodiversity.

The concept of integrated fish farming, developed in China over the past 400 years, allows for the use of four to six local fish species, each feeding on different nutrients at its ideal trophic level. The key to Chinese fish farming is that no one feeds the fish; the system provides the necessary nutrition. This enables a highly efficient conversion of inputs into fish protein, achieving yields of up to 15 tons of fish per hectare without the need to purchase fish feed. Wetlands, often ecologically degraded, offer a unique opportunity to implement these concepts.

Many agribusinesses, which generate massive quantities of excess water, represent a second target for repurposing their wastewater. In addition to their high-quality water, they often contain nutrients of direct interest to fish farming. Pig farms have already been mentioned, and breweries fall into the same category, but powdered milk production facilities, such as those in Scandinavia where one could even envision cultivating tropical species using all their waste, including powdered milk that doesn't meet human consumption standards and is discharged into the hot water sent to the wastewater treatment plant, are perhaps the most promising.

While we have successfully cultivated mushrooms on agricultural waste worldwide, we only have isolated examples in China and Brazil, where integrated biosystems have been successfully implemented. This is one of the areas where we have not made the progress we had anticipated.

6. Jobs

•“Since the middle of the last century, the world’s labor force has more than doubled, from 1.2 billion to 2.7 billion people, outpacing job creation. As a result, the United Nations International Labour Organization estimates that nearly one billion people, or about one-third of the world’s labor force, are unemployed or underemployed. Over the next half-century, the world will need to create more than 1.7 billion jobs just to maintain current employment levels” (p. 53)

The challenge of massive job creation is impossible to meet if we maintain the current production model, dominated by basic business strategy and solely by the productivity of labor and capital. If we are willing to apply basic economic principles and pursue raw material productivity as vigorously as labor productivity, we can expect a massive shift in job creation. The ZERI concept suggests that it is perfectly possible to generate more jobs while simultaneously increasing raw material productivity.

This logic has been tested at the microeconomic level. It still needs to be developed at the macroeconomic level, but the case is clear. If a brewer uses all the spent grains to make bread, they create and maintain more jobs by generating added value than if the spent grains were simply trucked to a landfill or a livestock farm. This bread competes with and replaces bread made from freshly imported grains, but on the other hand, its overall production, particularly in Africa and Latin America, will be available at a lower cost and with greater efficiency, so that bread will now be accessible to people who could not afford the price of imported grains.

How many jobs would be created if all breweries in Africa adopted this concept? How many jobs would be created if all reforestation projects also included the production and bottling of drinking water? How many additional jobs could be created if coffee waste were used as a substrate for agriculture? How many people could be employed and earn a living because social and sustainable housing is guaranteed using local building materials?

The challenge of 1.7 billion additional jobs is enormous, but the opportunities that emerge from converting waste and weeds into new productive inputs are easy to understand.

Since the launch of "The Blue Economy" in 2009, ten years after this article was written, another decade has passed, and through the initiatives we track alone, it is estimated that 3 million jobs have been created. We are far from our goal, but we have managed to do better than anyone expected.

7. Infectious Diseases

•"The last half-century has seen substantial global successes in the fight against many scourges of the past. Dominant demographic trends continue to create an overpopulated human 'environment' that both invites and is vulnerable to infections." (p. 57)

Modern medicine focuses on killing disease. As long as medicine maintains this clearly defined objective, it will fail to stem the spread of infectious diseases. The time has come to shift from eliminating disease to strengthening the body. Few programs guarantee that the immune system, weakened by malnutrition, stress, burnout, contaminated water, polluted air, and other factors, can be strengthened. One problem is our diet. A second problem is the increasing reliance on antibiotics, which, over time, diminish the immune system's ability to respond.

Our diets lack sufficient immune-modulating biochemicals found in mushrooms (triterpines, protein-carbohydrates), algae (beta-carotene, iodine), and vegetable oils (vitamin E). Our heavy reliance on animal and fish proteins prevents us from accessing many of these valuable components. Even worse, excessive food processing and preservation for extended shelf life remove essential, healthy nutrients that are then added back at great expense. The initiative to cultivate immune-modulating mushroom varieties (Lentinula edodes, Ganoderma lucidum) on agro-industrial waste streams offers the potential to increase the supply of natural substances that could even provide hope for HIV-infected orphans living in colonies in southern Africa. They have a job, they have a purpose, they are fed, which is essential since antiviral drugs are less likely to succeed in an undernourished organism.

8. Cultivated land

• "Since the middle of the last century, the world's population has increased much more rapidly than the area of ​​cultivated land. Cultivated land has increased by about 19%, but the world's population has increased by 132%, seven times faster. This trend is expected to continue over the next century, bringing cultivated land per person back to historically low levels. In overpopulated industrialized countries like Japan, Taiwan, and Korea, the area dedicated to cereal crops per capita is now less than the area of ​​a tennis court." (pp. 61-62)

The focus on cultivated land is limited. It needs to be broadened to encompass a wider food production system that goes beyond mere land availability. Since crops represent only a fraction of the total biomass, their residues, particularly straw, offer unique and proven opportunities for protein and nutrient production, utilizing the integrated biosystem widely practiced in China. The case of some 10 million Chinese farmers demonstrates that it is possible to use 10% of cultivated land to generate 60% of income. However, this additional income would not be generated if straw were not available in the first place.

The degradation of cultivated land through soil erosion negatively impacts land productivity. The use of fertilizers does not reverse this downward trend in productivity. On the contrary, the excessive use of insoluble fertilizers appears to worsen the situation. Solutions to this problem do exist. Water hyacinth, along with fast-growing giant grasses and girasols, can help recover nutrients. Water hyacinth is an aquatic weed that thrives in bodies of water where nutrients accumulate, primarily from untreated organic waste or soil erosion. Continuous harvesting, chopping, and inoculation of water hyacinth provide the opportunity to reapply a mixture of trace elements and nutrients to the soil, supplemented by mycelia and bacteria.

The restoration of degraded land could also be achieved by temporarily planting bamboo on degraded farmland. Its rich foliage could transform the land into improved soil, while simultaneously providing building materials for social and sustainable housing. An added benefit is that bamboo sequesters 40 times more carbon dioxide per square meter per year than pine. This systemic approach is likely to yield positive results for degraded agricultural land in the tropics.

A sustainable world will continuously replenish topsoil. This is part of the overall strategy, from food production to the development of renewable chemicals and the treatment of solid and liquid organic waste. The priority is to design a production and consumption cycle, particularly in cities, that closes this loop, which has eluded the current economic model.

9. The forests

• "Global losses of forest areas have followed population growth for most of human history. Indeed, 75% of the historical growth of the world's population and approximately 75% of the loss of global forest area occurred during the 20th century. Deforestation is driven by the demand for forest products, which closely follows the increase in per capita consumption. Global per capita use of paper and cardboard has doubled since 1961." (p. 65)

If we consider a paper and cardboard production system that remains centered on cellulose from wood, it is certain that it will not meet demand, even when the most advanced genetic manipulation promoting tree growth has been successfully implemented.

Using cellulose from trees is inefficient. Cellulose from sugarcane (bagasse), bananas, and bamboo grows faster and is superior to what can be obtained from trees. The only problem is that those who control the global cellulose market and the associated processing technologies have developed their businesses over the last 100 years in a temperate climate. The most productive sources of cellulose are found in the tropics.

Bamboo contains approximately 40 times more cellulose per square meter per year than a genetically engineered, fast-growing pine or eucalyptus tree. It is absurd to pursue sustainable forestry when readily available cellulose isn't even seriously considered.

Today, bagasse (48% fiber) is incinerated; bamboo, which can grow up to 25 meters per year, is simply left unharvested. The availability of 8 million hectares of sugarcane, a sector in crisis due to declining sugar demand (for obvious reasons, since it causes plaque and is therefore being replaced by synthetic sweeteners), would offer farmers a new opportunity if bagasse were paid the same price as eucalyptus fiber (over $400 per ton), which is higher than the market price of sugar.

The cellulose from giant grasses can be used in large quantities for paper production, but the same separation technologies developed for conifers and hardwoods cannot be used. One doesn't need to be an industrial engineer to understand that giant grasses like sugarcane and bamboo have a fundamentally different structure from trees, and therefore require separation techniques adapted to tropical environments and grasses.

Numerous initiatives aim to utilize all these biomasses for paper production, but unfortunately, few have succeeded. The reason is that the majority have opted for the same chemical and mechanical separation processes used in temperate climates. The supply of paper and cardboard is not a problem, provided one is willing to consider the most efficient supplier of the raw material. Clinging to producing paper from pine cellulose at all costs is doomed to failure. The only winner is the forestry company, which will see cellulose prices rise. If
, in addition to cellulose production, other by-products could be extracted from trees, sugarcane, or bamboo, we would be in an ideal situation. Lignin production is an obvious choice, as it is readily available and a rich source of energy. We can now envision an overall increase in the system's productivity that will make the process more efficient, generate revenue and jobs.

Stone paper offers an interesting addition to the market, but it doesn't absorb moisture. Therefore, we need to go beyond simply reusing waste. Over the past few decades, our research has always included multiple options, and bamboo has emerged as a gift from nature. The construction of the Bamboo Pavilion at the 2000 World Expo in Germany marked a turning point, not only for the use of bamboo as a basic ingredient in papermaking, but also as a building material that outperforms any other alternative. This is the new era of plant-based steel.

10. Housing

•"Over the past half-century, the world's housing stock has increased at roughly the same rate as the population. If governments do not recommit to providing housing, this situation is likely to worsen, as global housing needs are expected to almost double over the next 50 years, and those in Africa and the Middle East are expected to more than triple." (pp. 69-70)

If the current housing concept is maintained, it will be difficult to meet demand. On the other hand, if the concept of "growing your own home" is introduced, then there is a chance of success. Unfortunately, housing construction worldwide is excessively based on building systems that dominate regions of the world characterized by a temperate climate. These building systems have unfortunately served as a model for the developing world, leading to excessive consumption of steel, glass, and cement.

The concept introduced by ZERI offers the possibility of building a socially responsible and sustainable home using bamboo. Bamboo is widely available, with over 1,000 species. The project by Colombian architect Simon Velez allows us to offer an affordable, functional, and beautiful 65-square-meter house using no more than 150 bamboo stalks. Growing one's own home therefore requires no more than 75 square meters. Harvesting can take place after 12 months, depending on the type of bamboo used. The bamboo can be preserved with pyrolytic acid derived from the same bamboo, which is an entrepreneurial stimulant and eliminates toxic (imported) substances used to protect tropical materials against fungi and insects. Bamboo, and other tropical materials, treated with these natural acids not only have a beautiful color but also strengthen their structure and come with a guarantee of over 50 years. The Japanese even offer a 100-year guarantee.

The shift from steel, cement, asbestos, and glass to a building dominated by tropical construction materials that grow rapidly on degraded soils offers a glimpse into how millions of homes could be housed without expending money and energy on non-tropical materials. The experience of Latin America, which is being replicated in Africa, provides a solid foundation. The necessary quantity of bamboo can easily be supplied through programs to rehabilitate degraded and contaminated land.

Bamboo offers a unique option, which has been deployed worldwide, generating thousands of jobs.

11. Climate change

•"Over the last half-century, carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels have quadrupled, increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations by 30% compared to pre-industrial levels. The 15 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1979." (p. 73)

Reversing the risk of climate change accompanied by intense heat waves, more severe droughts and floods, more destructive storms, and more widespread forest fires requires an innovative portfolio of "productive means" to massively sequester and/or reuse greenhouse gases.

Recovering methane, a greenhouse gas 21 times more potent than carbon dioxide, through the pig farm digesters described earlier is a first step. Livestock farming is recognized as the second largest source of methane gas. Initially, we seem to be blaming the wrong species. It is primarily the responsibility of humans to provide better food that does not generate such large quantities of gas. Many waste products from industrial processes, such as spent grains, lead to increased gas production. If we change the feed or include healthy ingredients like algae, then cows and pigs will not produce the same amount of methane. Furthermore, if gas is produced, we should find ways to capture and utilize it, giving it value instead of simply letting it evaporate into the air.

Carbon dioxide sequestration has been the subject of much debate. It has led to reforestation programs worldwide. But when you consider that giant grasses like bamboo on land and kelp in the sea, which once formed massive forests in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, sequester up to 40 times more carbon dioxide per square meter per year than trees, you might wonder why these fast-growing biota haven't been more popular. Whenever energy companies announce a reforestation program to offset their excessive emissions, they only think of a pine and a eucalyptus tree. One reason may be a simple ignorance of nature's biodiversity, with policymakers guided by what they know about their own temperate climate. Another reason seems to be that there is a well-known economic use for wood, but those living in regions of the world subject to four seasons are unaware of the massive and sustainable uses of bamboo fibers, or kelp forests.

Brazil is, after China and Russia, the third largest consumer of asbestos in the world. Asbestos has not been replaced by synthetic alternatives because these are more expensive. Since asbestos is widely used in public housing, there has been no political leadership to mandate more expensive roofing in exchange for a healthier living environment. If all of Brazil's asbestos were replaced with bamboo fibers, Brazil would need to reforest and harvest approximately 4 million hectares of bamboo annually. This would sequester the equivalent of 160 million hectares of fast-growing pine forests. If Colombia were to replace its asbestos—imported from Canada—it would need approximately 100,000 hectares, or 4 million hectares of trees, using its most efficient species, Guada. China, the quintessential bamboo-producing country, would absorb all the carbon dioxide it emits to meet its energy needs if this option were adopted.

Bamboo forests once covered large parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. When Spanish colonizers arrived in the highlands of South America, they found vast bamboo forests. In fact, the regions now known for coffee were once covered in bamboo. Bamboo fibers, as a reinforcing material in cement, have a long economic lifespan, ensuring that carbon is not immediately released into the atmosphere. Everyone agrees that asbestos must be eliminated for health reasons, but if Latin America, Africa, and Asia continue to use this toxic mineral, or its expensive synthetic substitute, we have a significant opportunity to reverse climate change.

Bamboo is not the only species that could be promoted, but since there are some 1,200 species of bamboo, one could be identified for almost every type of climate, with the exception of temperate and cold climates. In all key regions of the world where asbestos is used, local bamboo species are available. Perhaps the most attractive aspect is that bamboo species do not require rich soil and would therefore not compete with agriculture. Steep hills, eroded land, and industrial wastelands laden with heavy metals are prime examples of areas in the world with no economic value. Bamboo not only reclaims the land by creating a new layer of humus, but it also helps restore the hydrological cycle by replenishing groundwater that had been depleted due to poor management of topsoil and vegetation. 

None of the objectives set out in any of the possible agreements have been achieved. We refrain from participating in large meetings and focus on implementing projects that are always based on the principle of zero emissions. In 2001, it was decided to release the trademark and make it available to everyone for free use.

12. Materials 

• "From 1950 to 1988, ocean fish catches increased from 19 million to 88 million tonnes, a growth rate much faster than that of the population. Per capita catches rose from less than 8 kilograms in 1950 to a historical peak of 17 kilograms in 1988, more than doubling. Since 1988, however, the growth in catches has slowed and fallen below that of the population. Between 1988 and 1997, per capita catches fell to just over 16 kilograms, a decrease of about 4%." (p. 49)

Given that the current production and consumption model uses only a small fraction of each of the materials produced by or extracted from the Earth, there is little chance of meeting the population's needs, not to mention the massive waste generated. When the soluble part of the coffee plant, which ends up in a cup of coffee, represents no more than 0.2%, it is no wonder that coffee farmers struggle to make ends meet. Farmers are subject to the volatile fluctuations of international market prices. When the long fibers of sisal and fig account for only 2% and the rest is wasted, it is no wonder that synthetic alternatives quickly take over the market. The list of massive waste production is long.

The use of bamboo for construction in the tropical highlands offers a very different perspective: a 20-meter-long bamboo stalk can be used almost entirely. The main portion of the stem—about 9 meters long—is used as (1) structural building material, (2) the arching roots provide support, (3) the top of the bamboo is used for small decorations, (4) the remaining stem is used as fuel for the vaccination process, (5) the leaves are used for growing mushrooms, and (6) the twigs also end up in the smoldering fire of the vaccination. It has been estimated that the wood used in the construction of an American house rarely represents more than 20% of the biomass originally generated by the tree. The complete use of tropical materials offers a clear vision of how the production model of the future will be far better equipped to meet the urgent needs of the population.

The same logic applies to beer, which is generally produced in urban centers. The spent grains are currently shipped to livestock farmers hundreds of kilometers away, or simply landfilled, or even incinerated. This option is far from ideal. Adding a bakery to the brewery would be enough to recover all the proteins that would otherwise be lost. The book "UpSizing" (Pauli, 1998) offers hundreds of examples of how our current inefficient use of materials can be reversed, leading to a new economy where the productive use of all components is certain to bring about a fundamental reversal of current trends.

This crystallized into the basic principle: use what you have, and generate value.

13. Urbanization

• “The world’s cities are growing faster than its population. In 1950, 760 million people in the world lived in cities. By 1998, this figure had at least tripled, reaching more than 2.7 billion. The number of people expected to live in cities by 2050, 6.2 billion, exceeds the current world population” (p. 81).

The key shift to envision is reversing the current rural-to-urban migration, first leading to a freeze in rural areas and ultimately to a return to rural communities. The current rural exodus stems from a lack of visible opportunities in the countryside, as already small plots of land are subdivided, then subdivided again with each generation, until they become so small that people can no longer imagine how to make a living with the current production model, which focuses on only one material and discards everything else as waste. There are a few examples that demonstrate this trend can be reversed.

The average size of a Colombian coffee farm has fallen to 1.6 hectares, down from 4.5 hectares just 25 years ago. It's difficult for a family to survive on such a small plot of land, growing only coffee. But if mushrooms can be cultivated on the leaves, twigs, and coffee crates, an immediate source of additional income can be generated. Furthermore, if value can be added to the bamboo growing along streams in the steep hills where coffee cultivation isn't possible, through a simple immunization technique, another source of income can be secured. Soil erosion can be combated by planting lemongrass along the roots; lemongrass is a popular essential oil in global demand. One family member could become an expert in bamboo construction, another in immunization, another in mushroom cultivation, another in essential oils, and of course, the coffee expertise is maintained. The integrated coffee farm will be very different from the current fazenda, where the farmer struggles to imagine how to survive. The family doesn't expand its land or diversify into new areas. It simply uses what it has and what can be used productively. The time has come for humanity to become a true "homo sapiens.".

The development of Las Gaviotas in the Colombian Llanos created a sustainable community on 11,000 hectares from scratch. If the same could be done across 6 million hectares of the Colombian and Venezuelan savanna, which faces the same challenge, it would be possible to create some 120,000 jobs while massively reforesting the region. Developing the northern regions and the Amazon of Brazil according to similar principles is not only technically feasible, but also underpinned by strong economic logic. If job creation and added value are sufficiently demonstrated through the sustainable use of all resources, it will be possible not only to keep people happy in the countryside, but also to attract more families to establish a sustainable livelihood, instead of facing a bleak future in overcrowded cities.

The pursuit of ever-increasing productivity in the state of Pará led to the closure of some 11 lumber mills. Because these mills were located deep within the forest, it is difficult to imagine job creation as an alternative to this unsustainable use of an internationally protected natural resource. However, the reuse of water hyacinth to replenish the soil, the harvesting of tropical/medicinal mushrooms, and the processing of cultivated mushrooms using parts from the old sawmill provide a clear idea of ​​how jobs can be created, but more importantly, how it is possible to restore an environment that has suffered from human intrusion.
While this approach cannot be achieved overnight and sometimes takes decades to prove its viability, as in the case of Las Gaviotas, it is these pioneering efforts that allow a new vision to emerge.

This is why new projects like El Hierro discuss the power of re-ruralization, instead of studying urbanization and its effects on life and communities. Strengthening the livelihoods of rural communities is essential.

14. Protected natural areas

•"Population growth over the past 50 years has made it difficult to set aside and conserve natural areas. Another half-century of growth will put even more pressure on protected areas, as formerly small and remote settlements encroach on these sites and the number of people using them explodes." (p. 85)

The main drawback of protected natural areas is that they have been closed to human activity. Even worse, the only permitted economic activity is the introduction of tourism, which, in many cases, offers the highest and fastest economic returns, but which, on the other hand, also has a negative impact.

The sustainable economic use of protected natural areas is essential. While excessive human presence should not be encouraged, selective and well-targeted activities can be undertaken to ensure the long-term viability of these areas. The Sierra Nevada de Santa Martha Natural Park, home to the world's highest coastal mountain range, rising to some 5,900 meters from the coast, boasts one of the richest biodiversities on the planet thanks to its diverse microclimates. It is also the site of the Lost City. However, the park and its archaeological sites are closed to the public. While security concerns related to illicit drugs must be acknowledged, the park contains a unique collection of orchids that could be propagated and sold at very high prices on international markets. It also harbors medicinal mushrooms that can be harvested without any risk of environmental damage.

UNESCO's exceptional initiatives concerning Man and the Biosphere and World Cultural Heritage offer insight into the problems being created and the opportunities being missed. There is no doubt that simply preserving these areas does not guarantee their survival. A targeted strategy for sustainable economic activities can alleviate pressure by generating income, while simultaneously providing the necessary funding for genuine conservation.

We have moved from protecting to regenerating nature reserves, devising ways to put nature back on the path of evolution.

15. Education

•"The global need for teachers and classrooms will increase very slowly over the next quarter century and then decline. Globally, the total population is projected to increase by 47 percent between 2000 and 2050, but the number of children under 15 will actually decrease by about 3 percent." (p. 89)

Current teaching methods are clearly inadequate to equip people with the tools they need to become self-reliant in their daily lives. The educational system that "exposes but does not impose," that "reaches but does not teach," as implemented by the ZERI Foundation (and others), offers a chance to reverse the current trends leading to insufficient self-reliance. The exercise conducted at Montfort Boys Town in Fiji indicates that when children not only learn a trade but also acquire the ability to provide for themselves after graduation and return to one of Fiji's 600 inhabited islands, they have a chance of finding comfort and a good quality of life in remote parts of the world.

The same approach was recently introduced in colonies for HIV-infected orphans in Mutare, Zimbabwe. The strategy of ensuring that people not only obtain a diploma, learn to read and write, but also acquire the ability to feed, drink, receive medical care, and even find shelter, even in the most adverse conditions, is probably one of the best remedies for poverty and one of the best contributions of education to local communities imaginable.

The educational program proved to be a remarkable exercise in developing a new pedagogy that has since been adopted in China. There, all the fables are distributed to every school, and the books are recognized by the Alibaba Foundation as the best nature books in the country.

16. Waste

"Data on waste production in the developing world are scarce, but it is estimated that citizens in many of these countries produce about half a kilo of municipal waste per day. If we apply this figure to the current population, 824 million tons of municipal waste are produced each year in developing countries. Population growth alone would increase this figure to 1.4 billion tons by 2050. But a developing world producing as much waste per capita as industrialized countries today would produce some 3.4 billion tons of municipal waste by 2050" (pp. 93-95).

The repurposing of former cement plants, as is the case in Stockholm, Sweden, and as planned in Colombia and Brazil, offers the opportunity to fundamentally rethink the problem of waste.
On the one hand, these disused factories, which symbolize social and environmental disasters, can be transformed into drivers of local development, while simultaneously returning fertile land to agriculture and forestry. The cement plant, converted into compost, will also ensure that there is no leaching, that excess carbon dioxide is fully recovered, and that the CO2 and heat can be used to grow salads and tomatoes year-round at competitive prices.

Since most cement plants are equipped with silos and loading docks, truck transport can be drastically reduced, while the cost of compost production can be lowered to the point of being a perfect competitor to synthetic fertilizers. With a production of 500 to 1,000 tons per day, the link between urban and rural areas is not only secure but also economically beneficial. The problem is not production, but rather the challenge of finding buyers in the market.

The program launched by Bedminster in Sweden and developed by Taiheiyo Cement in Japan provides insight into the potential of municipal solid waste and identifies the waste-related problems that need to be addressed as a priority. Clearly, there is no immediate and comprehensive solution, but the accumulation of human organic waste in diapers, for example, highlights the need for a compostable plastic solution. Just a few months after the launch of Bedminster's composting program in Stockholm, a group of entrepreneurs launched a compostable diaper that was immediately met with enthusiastic market response. Indeed, there is a general consensus that, given that the contents must be natural and their use limited to a few hours, it makes no sense to package them in three different plastics that not only contaminate the contents but also prevent them from being composted.

The combination of sectors to ensure the transformation of waste into resources has been implemented in various constellations: cement and composting of the organic component of municipal solid waste (MSW) have been complemented by mixing sewage treatment plant sludge with MSW to generate gas in such a volume that the sums earned cover all wastewater treatment expenses while halving the amount of waste sent to landfill.

17. Conflicts

 "Throughout history, population growth has worked in tandem with socio-economic and political upheavals to tip the balance in unstable situations. Population growth makes things more precarious." (p. 97)

ZERI works actively in one of the world's most violent societies: Colombia. While the country is gripped by a clear social, economic, and environmental crisis, it is also the nation where most efforts are being made to transform the current inefficient economic model into a system of production and consumption that the world could emulate. Las Gaviotas in Vichada not only operates in a highly degraded environmental area, but it is also hostile to its inhabitants, particularly due to the lack of clean drinking water, which is responsible for 70% of illnesses. It is also the area where guerrilla and paramilitary groups are most active.

Yet, it is precisely here that a new self-sufficient society is emerging. A society based on bicycle transportation. If one were to use a car, the guerrillas would seize it at gunpoint, and if the guerrillas don't seize the car at gunpoint, then the paramilitaries are convinced that one is collaborating with the guerrillas and might simply murder you. The bicycle is therefore the symbol of a non-violent society, since neither the guerrillas nor the paramilitaries are interested in bicycles.

The Colombian highlands have remained an island of peace. But with a projected 17% drop in coffee prices and increasing pressure on land use due to population growth, there is a persistent danger that the remaining stable regions could descend into insurgency. Therefore, a parallel, focused effort is being undertaken: one in Vichada, where violence is already rampant, and the other in areas that, hopefully, will never fall victim to aggression. The determining factor is simple: meeting the population's urgent needs for food, water, healthcare, shelter, and employment.

ZERI programs include an innovative method for ensuring conflict resolution. This article was published on the Blue Economy website.

The ZERI programs include an innovative way to ensure conflict resolution. This has been published on the Blue Economy website.

18. Meat production

"World meat production increased from 44 million tonnes in 1950 to 216 million tonnes in 1998, a growth rate almost twice as fast as that of the population. Total meat consumption is projected to increase from 216 million tonnes to 481 million tonnes in 2050, a gain of 265 million tonnes. Assuming an average of 3 kg of grain per kilo of meat produced, this would require almost 800 million additional tonnes of cereal feed in 2050, an amount equal to half of the current world consumption of cereals" (pp. 102-104).

The focus on simply converting plant proteins into animal proteins is the main bottleneck. There is a third source of protein that remains completely untapped: fungal protein. It is quite difficult to understand how the world could have overlooked this rich resource of nutrients, minerals, and vitamins. After growing fungi on coffee grounds or rice straw, the otherwise difficult-to-digest cellulose is broken down, and the substrate is enriched with protein. The mycelium contains up to 38% protein, allowing for direct consumption by livestock (where wood is unavailable) or indirect use (from woody substrates) by cultivating earthworms, which are rich in protein.

Agriculture discards millions of tons of straw, husks, and pellets, and nature contains vast resources considered weeds, such as water hyacinth, bamboo, and rattan (which cannot be fed directly to livestock). All of this can be converted into livestock feed through fungal treatment. The potential is quite impressive, and the technique is relatively simple. Conversion could be complete in a matter of weeks in a tropical climate. If a fungal-based diet is desired, fruiting would be possible in less than a month after inoculation. This process offers one of the most efficient generators of animal feed and food, with a unique ability to adapt to consumer preferences for both vegetarian and non-vegetarian diets.

This process requires a shift in the production model, but it offers a chance to guarantee a minimum supply of animal protein to billions of people who currently have no access to protein from any source. While, from a health perspective, simply converting plant and fungal proteins into animal proteins is unwise, it at least allows us to glimpse the light at the end of the tunnel that it is possible to meet the needs of this critical mass of people.

Food programs are expanding the portfolio of plants and animals to include fungi and algae. This approach is also inspired by the fact that the transition from seed to food is much faster than any plant or animal can imagine. In terms of their capacity to produce nutrition, algae and fungi offer a multitude of possibilities. This provides insight into food systems that could one day eliminate hunger.

19. Income

 "World economic output, that is, the total of all goods and services produced, increased from 6 trillion in 1950 to 39 trillion in 1998, a growth rate almost three times greater than that of the population. The growth in output between 1990 and 1998 exceeded that of the 10,000 years between the beginning of agriculture and 1950. If the economy were to grow only to keep pace with population growth until 2050, it would have to reach 59 trillion. If the economy were to continue growing at a rate of 3% per year, world economic output would reach 183 trillion in 2050." (pp. 105-108)

The economy is growing at an almost record pace. The bad news is that the economy, as it is currently structured, is outpacing the Earth's ecosystem. This is because we have a linear production and consumption model, centered on core activities, which completely neglects the need for material productivity, both in production and consumption.

If the economic model finally fully exploits all raw materials, and if it fully harnesses the cascading potential of energy production, then the economy will be able to respond to the dramatic population explosion we are facing anyway. Paradoxically, the only industry that uses almost 100% of the raw materials provided by the Earth is the oil and petrochemical industry. The largest non-renewable industry dominates the global economy, deriving some 100,000 products from a single raw source. It makes one of the most efficient uses of available resources worldwide.

If all processing industries could extract raw materials with the same efficiency as the oil industry, we would experience a massive productivity revolution, producing more goods and services than ever before, while creating millions of jobs (and therefore income), thus meeting the massive unmet demand, as evidenced by the billion people who live in abject poverty. It is this increase in productivity that will generate the income that will allow the poor to buy the products these biorefineries produce.

The first biorefineries were conceived in the 1990s and are now being implemented. These projects, representing investments in the hundreds of millions, demonstrate a commitment to investing in new production models that offer farmers an income above the global market price. This will finally reverse the trend whereby farmers, fishers, and miners are the lowest paid, despite being the guardians of our ecosystems.

20. Conclusion

The current economic model is incapable of meeting the needs of the world's population because it simply doesn't apply its own theory. It's difficult to understand how we can focus on the productivity of labor and capital while simultaneously wasting natural resources massively and short-sightedly. Economists and business leaders exhibit an advanced state of "Homo non sapiens," people who simply don't seem to know how to meet people's needs with the resources available.

Changing the structure of production and consumption is the greatest challenge. It is nothing less than a complete overhaul of the economy, a true re-engineering challenge. The production of additional goods and services must go hand in hand with the creation of added value, which leads to the generation of income and jobs. Given the massive unemployment and unprecedented unmet needs, the world has a unique opportunity to design and evolve toward a production system capable of meeting the population's needs. The concept of the biorefinery, promoted by Professor Carl-Göran Heden, is essential to this transformation of the economic model.

It is clear that we cannot rely on a central body, an intelligent brain capable of considering this for everyone, everywhere in the world. The production model that must be implemented must evolve according to simple principles of nature: "everything that lives creates waste, but no waste is wasted." What is not useful to one is an input for another, and thus the system regenerates itself thanks to the continuous supply of solar energy. This provides the essential conditions for reducing poverty initially, and subsequently generating a better quality of life.
The rapid and successful implementation of this new production and consumption model depends first and foremost on a widespread decentralization of production, distribution, and decision-making. If nature's model is imitated, the countless inefficiencies of the current centralized system will be eliminated. Local jobs and income will be generated, and the problems of massive waste that dominate population centers will gradually disappear.

The emphasis on total productivity (labor, capital, and raw materials) allows us to envision an economy that generates more jobs, more income, and more products while eliminating waste. This is the socio-economic model of the 21st century. It doesn't imply any revolution in economic theory; it simply anticipates the application of what Adam Smith (Smith 1776) so clearly envisioned more than two centuries ago.

Now is the time when we finally have the opportunity to rethink and design an economy that contributes to the common good.

References
Brown, Lester and Gary Gardner. Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge. Norton Press, New York, USA, 1999, 168 p.
Pauli, Gunter. UpSizing: the road to zero emissions - more income, more jobs and zero pollution. Greenleaf Publications, London, UK, 1998, 224 p.
Smith, Adam. The Wealth of Nations. 1776

Gunter Pauli (1956) trained as an economist. He worked for five years with Dr. Aurelio Peccei, founder of the Club of Rome, and was the editor of the State of the World Report, the flagship publication of the Worldwatch Institute, for several years in various European languages. He organized presentations for Lester Brown before national parliaments across Europe and the European Parliament.
He contributed to the creation of the Worldwatch Institute Europe. He is the author of over 20 books,
published in more than 40 languages. His books reflect a continuous and creative search for a new production model that meets the needs of populations, particularly in developing countries.