The global turbine market
The global market for turbines and related products, such as motors and generators, was valued at over $100 billion in 2012. Strong growth in aircraft manufacturing and power generation is driving demand. While 70% of the global market is concentrated in North America and Europe, China is experiencing the strongest growth. China is beginning to produce its own turbines, driven by demand for wind turbines. Denmark is the only country with a trade surplus of wind turbines due to its exports.
There are three main market segments for turbines: turbine engines used exclusively to power aircraft, gas turbines for electricity generation, and wind turbines. Demand for wind turbines will surpass that of gas turbines by 2012. Modern wind turbines were selling for $1.5 million per megawatt in 2010. If the United States were to install 20% of its energy supply from wind power, this would represent a $250 billion market. The global wind turbine market set a new record in 2011, reaching a total size of 42 gigawatts (GW). Total global capacity was 239 GW in 2012. China had already installed a total capacity of 63 GW.
Wind turbine manufacturers are responding to specific demand with vertical-axis wind turbines (VAWTs) and horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs). Demand growth is certain, and fundamental innovations in the sector are needed to overcome the limiting factor of rare earth metals. An industrial wind turbine uses more than a ton of magnets, 35% of which are neodymium. Today, China produces 95% of this rare earth metal. To extract rare earth metals, aggressive acids are pumped into borehole-like wells where the chemicals dissolve all the deposits. The slurry is then pumped into ponds, posing significant occupational and environmental risks. New sources, new processes, and new types of materials will be needed as the wind energy sector continues to evolve.
Innovation
Several high-growth green industries depend on rare earth metals. Toyota needs 2 to 4 pounds of neodymium and dysprosium for its hybrid engine in its popular Prius and lanthanum for its battery. The strength of the Chinese market in rare earth metals was illustrated by the evolution of battery manufacturer BYD into a successful automaker. By 2011, a fleet of BYD electric taxis in Shenzhen, China, with a range of 300 kilometers, had accumulated 6 million kilometers, with each vehicle averaging over 160,000 kilometers. Their exclusive access to rare earth metals provides the necessary leverage to penetrate the market. It is within this evolving competitive landscape of green industries in general, and energy production in particular, that Shawn Frayne's discovery offers a fundamental new approach. He invented aerodynamic buoyancy energy generation that operates without rare earth metals. Ultimately, this electricity generator could operate without any metal, not even copper or stainless steel.
Shawn Frayne, a physics graduate from MIT, observed how wind pressure generates vibrations in elongated bands and ropes. He studied this aerodynamic force, which can build and destroy a bridge, as was the case with the Tacoma Narrows Bridge in the 1940s—a phenomenon well known to all construction engineers. This experience taught experts how to design structures capable of withstanding this force of nature. Shawn took a different approach, imagining how to work with the flow, designing a system to harvest the power of the wind's movement and convert it into electricity without the need for a turbine.
The creative mind of this multi-talented inventor and owner of a portfolio of patents slated for commercialization in the fields of packaging and water purification has taken root in Hong Kong. After a lukewarm reception from American venture capital funds, Shawn settled in this Chinese city-state where he and his team are developing ways to generate electricity without rotational motion and potentially even without rare earth metals. While the science is well-established, the transition to commercial applications is emerging after three years of trial and error.
The first cash flow
Eliminating rare earth metals from the wind turbine equation—by eliminating the turbine itself—is a revolutionary innovation. While large-scale market penetration could take another decade or perhaps even a generation, there are multiple niche markets that are clear targets for the Hong Kong-based startup Humdinger. The miniature wind belt is potentially the first commercial application. This tiny device has the ability to replace sensor batteries. Since a small gust of wind of just 10 km/h is enough to generate the energy needed to operate a sensor, a wind belt could replace, over its lifespan, 100 batteries and the labor required to change them.
The global sensor market is booming. From fire detectors and weather monitoring to temperature and pH recording, modern society relies heavily on the remote and independent measurement of dozens of parameters. The ability to eliminate battery-powered sensors, combined with the ability to remain grid-independent, creates a new business opportunity that builds a business model based on what you already have—a fundamental principle of the blue economy.
The opportunity
Eliminating turbines, magnets, and even, in the future, all metals, while generating electricity from wind that creates aerodynamic vibrations, opens up a wide range of opportunities for local energy production and consumption. While the current cost of electricity generated by aeroelastic vibrations already places the energy per kilowatt-hour on par with all traditional sources, the opportunity extends beyond the obvious. A completely new energy concept could emerge, with specific applications in the Buddhist world.
The first large-scale application of this energy-generating device could well take place in Bhutan. Every child in these Himalayan nations grows up to be a wind energy prospector. Why? Since Buddhists pray by waving flags in the wind, the key is knowing where the wind is. Each flagpole could be fitted with a cord, attached to a float, generating electricity during prayer. The elongated band—the wind belt—could even have prayers painted on it. This would be the ultimate form of "holy energy": the more wind, the more electricity, the more prayers!
One million flagpoles represent 12 watts per hour per wind cell, for a combined potential of 360 megawatts available to unreached mountain communities if each flagpole were converted into electricity. It could even become a trend in grid-connected cities where citizens would like to combine energy with spirituality and sustainability.
