The market
The global market for contraceptives was estimated at $15.5 billion in 2010 and is projected to reach $19.2 billion in 2017. The market is increasingly attractive to pharmaceutical companies looking to re-enter, as demand over the past few decades has proven resilient to economic downturns. More than half of couples aged 15 to 49 in Europe, Russia, Australia, Latin America, and North America use contraceptive methods. Usage is rising to over 70% in the European Union, with the exception of Spain. In 2010, the global market for condoms was valued at $4.2 billion. In developing countries, sterilization is the most common contraceptive method, used by 17% of couples. In this region, only 7% of couples use oral contraceptives, 5% use intrauterine devices (IUDs), and only 4% use condoms. Only 260 million women in the developing world have access to contraception. Approximately 215 million women are seeking contraception but lack access. These figures confirm the market's potential for expansion if these products were readily available.
Globally, oral contraceptives account for 78% of the largest market, with growth of at least 3% annually. Barrier contraceptives (IUDs, vaginal rings, and condoms) control a much smaller share but are growing at a much higher rate, reaching 8.5% per year over the next five years. An estimated one million additional women every three years require publicly funded birth control, driving institutional demand within the OECD. A few pharmaceutical companies dominate the market, including Bayer Schering Pharma (Germany), Pfizer and Merck (USA), Ansell Ltd. (Australia), Janssen Pharmaceuticals (Belgium), and Teva Pharmaceuticals (Israel). Durex is the global market leader in condoms with a 35% market share of branded products. With a compound annual growth rate of over 6%, the Asian condom market is the fastest growing in the world.
Non-profit organizations like DKT International (USA) engage in social marketing—using modern marketing techniques to achieve social good and not just to make a profit—to sell over 650 million condoms and provide 72 million oral contraceptives in 2011, reaching approximately 24.5 million couples. Worldwide, this innovative form of marketing to reach couples already provides 2.4 billion condoms and 162 million oral contraceptive pills annually. Because the products are sold, they are likely to be used, making family planning services cost-effective and less reliant on abortion, which exposes women to significant risk.
Innovation
The contraceptive product portfolio faces numerous challenges. Surgical interventions are irreversible and therefore less popular. The consumption of long-lasting synthetic hormones is causing increasing difficulties for wastewater treatment plants, which, even with high-end reverse osmosis systems, are unable to remove all chemical components from waterways. This can cause hormonal disruptions in humans (and aquatic life) downstream if wastewater is recycled for human or agricultural use. Condoms use non-biodegradable plastic that can clog toilets and sewer systems if not disposed of properly, and reduce erectile strength in one-fifth of healthy men. Cost is also a major concern. Innovative mechanical devices such as the Sino-Implant, the SILCS diaphragm, and the long-acting NES/EE vaginal contraceptive ring, which lasts for 12 months instead of one, reduce the cost for the buyer and the need for assistance in using the devices. Other issues remain to be addressed, such as device removal and responsible disposal at the end of use.
Jorge Reynolds pioneered the design of the pacemaker in the 1950s and, since the 1990s, has dedicated himself to designing a battery-free electrocardiogram (ECG) (see Case 4). Dr. Reynolds has carefully studied a wide range of applications of the "battery-free concept" and realized that perhaps the most innovative application would be the design of an integrated system of mobile, communicating sensors and processing that would allow women to control their fertility cycles. A woman's body temperature is usually between 36.5 and 36.8 degrees Celsius, although the exact value can vary from person to person. During ovulation, the hormone progesterone causes a slight increase in temperature of 0.1 or 0.2 degrees Celsius. While one-tenth of a degree might not seem significant, one could track body temperature daily over several menstrual cycles and see a pattern emerge over time.
Dr. Reynolds designed a special sensor the size of a grain of rice that can be attached to underwear using a Velcro strip. The sensor can measure temperature very accurately, day or night, and is capable of transferring this data to a nearby cell phone. The sensor operates without a battery and is able to convert the radio frequency of the nearby cell phone(s) into a power source strong enough to measure body temperature and simultaneously send data to the phone via a dedicated app. This app includes a special message (SMS, ringtone, or vibration) indicating that, based on real-time data readings and verified by historical records, the chance of conception is high.
The first cash flow
There are many family planning apps for smartphones on the market. However, none of them are connected to a battery-free sensor equipped with communication capabilities. Existing apps offer a fertility chart used only for recreational purposes, compiling historical data and personal observations. There are more than a dozen apps available, including: Feminine Calendar ($9.99), iChartMe ($2.99), MeFertil ($4.99), FemiCycle ($2.99), iOvulation ($0.99), and NFP Manager (free), providing all the basic information in a visually appealing way. If these apps could combine the proprietary designs of the sensors, antennas, and data processing with Dr. Jorge Reynolds' detailed intelligent information processing, then the body temperature model could be converted into a tool for birth control. In fact, the current antenna design could benefit from the innovations proposed by Johan Gielis (Case 91) based on his super formula.
The opportunity
Eleven billion cell phones have been sold since the communication device was first introduced in 1994. In the last 18 months, another billion have been added. Nokia alone has sold 3.4 billion units. Five billion units have been discarded over the years, while 6 billion are in use, including one billion in China and another billion in India. In many regions, cell phone penetration exceeds 100%, meaning a considerable number of people use more than one phone. Nearly half of the world's phones are used in the Asia-Pacific region, and phone penetration in countries like South Africa is already 100%. Africa and Asia have a great interest in and need for family planning. The cost of the sensor is low and will decrease as volume increases. This could become the cheapest family planning device ever conceived. This minute sensor, which is readily available on the market, will be available within a few months. The prototypes produced in Bogotá (Colombia) indicate a price of less than $10 per unit.
The substitution of chemicals (synthetic hormones) and mechanical processes (based on precious and rare metals or polymers) with sensors and software grounded in physics and mathematics is an example of innovation within the Blue Economy. While replacing a battery with a battery-free system like the electrocardiogram (ECG) in a mobile phone would be a significant step forward, the introduction of new devices—particularly sensors essential for improving the health and safety of our daily lives—that will never require a battery will make our societies more sustainable, improve quality, and ensure we reduce our costs and dependence on extracted materials. At a lower annual cost than existing family planning devices, this would also make it affordable and within the economic means of millions of people who cannot be reached through any media, not even social media, but who do have access to a mobile phone.
