The market
The global market for computer servers is expected to reach nearly $48 billion in 2011, compared to $42.2 billion in 2009. This corresponds to 7.6 million servers. The first quarter of 2011 already confirmed an 8.7% growth in volume, while the high-end segment grew by 14.2%. This is good news after the industry suffered in 2009 from a marked economic slowdown, with an 18% drop in demand compared to 2008. The concept of cloud computing, which involves providing data and services on demand using computer networks instead of a local server, is expected to further stimulate server demand. One of the major changes in the ever-evolving internet system is that a growing number of servers are dedicated exclusively to video. This market segment is expected to grow from almost nothing two years ago to $2.3 billion in 2012. Data center growth is explosive. A company like Dell doubled its number of data service centers in China, from one to two thousand in just one year, claiming that 60% of all cloud service centers in China are Dell-based. The market leader in servers (all types combined) is Hewlett Packard, which holds 31.5% of the market, closely followed by IBM with 29.2%. Oracle, a newcomer to the field, has acquired 6.5%. The rise of server farms comes at a price: 1.2% of all electricity in the United States is consumed by servers, accounting for 0.5% of all greenhouse gas emissions. Intel, with 100,000 servers, is the world's largest self-reported server user. Facebook had over 60,000 servers in 2010, but Google leaves the world guessing how many it uses, with some claiming it has now surpassed one million. Microsoft may have as many as 225,000, while Yahoo and eBay each operate over 50,000. Telecommunications companies are minor users, with only 20,000 to 25,000 servers (!) for giant operators like Verizon and AT&T.
Innovation
The driving force behind server innovation has been the combination of increased computer power and miniaturization. Pre-configuring server bundles has also become a key element in the pursuit of efficiency. Energy efficiency has received particular attention, especially through component design. The mobile electronics world has realized that Bluetooth technology is technically very powerful, but can be considered the "Hummer" of communications due to its excessive energy consumption. Low thermal design power (TDP) has become a key area, pushing per-processor requirements from 35-40 W to 15 W currently, and even less than 10 W by 2012. However, the main challenge is that the grid supplies alternating current (AC) electricity while all consumption is direct current (DC). Converting alternating current (AC) to direct current (DC) involves a loss of efficiency, and while this has created a huge market for AC-to-DC converters, it not only increases costs but also makes energy efficiency difficult to achieve, as at least 10 percent of the AC energy is converted into heat and thus lost. Even worse, the excess heat must be dissipated, requiring all server farms to be excessively air-conditioned. Umesh Mishra is a professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and an expert in physics. He has made significant scientific contributions to the design of high-speed transistors. Mr. Mishra developed expertise in power amplification and concluded that he could design computer chips to convert AC to DC. Instead of losing 10 percent of the energy as wasted heat, he could now achieve over 99 percent efficiency and have almost no heat loss. Such highly efficient converters could reduce the demand for air conditioners that hum in data centers just to get rid of the residual heat produced by lights and servers. He calculated that if his solution were applied across the industry, his innovation would save hundreds of terawatt-hours of electricity. Las Vegas – Professor Mishra points out – consumes only 33 terawatt-hours!
The first cash flow
Mr. Umesh and his colleagues then founded Transphorm, a company aiming to produce chips that convert alternating current (AC) to direct current (DC), eliminating the need for chargers that also act as rectifiers. Transphorm received $38 million in funding from investors, including Google, a company that has already decided to create a 12V DC backup battery for each server. Google went further, building its data centers inside standard 40-foot shipping containers, each housing 1,160 servers with a power consumption of 250 kW, all running on direct current. Data centers typically rely on uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), which are giant batteries that kick in when the main power supply fails. The UPS operates much faster than traditional diesel generators, which can cause power surges. However, integrating the power supply into the server is cheaper, allowing the cost to be matched directly to the server, eliminating wasted capacity and adapting to local needs.
The opportunity
While Umesh Mishra anticipates his prototype factory will be operational by 2012, the real change that should occur is the elimination of any need to worry about conversion at all. Substituting something for "nothing" is one of the fundamental principles of the blue economy. The goal should be to replace AC/DC converters with no converters at all. This is only viable when the entire grid, including the base load, operates on direct current. After all, servers, laptops, LED lights, cell phones, electric motors and vehicles, even refrigerators, run on direct current. Solar panels, piezoelectricity, and many other renewable energy sources are also DC-based. So why bother with expensive inverters (often called chargers—but whose primary function is to rectify 110 or 220V AC to 6, 12, or 24V DC) when we could bypass this grid inefficiency? The ongoing revolution is that innovations in AC-to-DC converters are simply unnecessary, since renewable energy could be produced and consumed locally, thus eliminating the need for smart grids. Central energy in buildings could be supplied by multiple sources, as described in scenarios 12 (aeroelastic vibrations), 40 (electricity by osmosis), 42 (electricity by tap), 53 (innovative solar energy), and piezoelectric, thanks to the building's compressive force, which can generate up to 6 V DC for every ton of compression. While the assembly of compression panels is still in the conceptual stage, it is clear that the manufacturing technique for photovoltaic solar cells is very similar to that of compression cells, where silicon is replaced by quartz, crystalline silk, or even sugar and salt. The only condition for success is that the building moves slightly—at the molecular level—and this can be easily achieved by redesigning the roof. The superstructure of a building will resemble a tree, with a wide canopy protecting its base from rain and sun, yet offering the flexibility to move with the wind and the earth to harness the power inherent in the Earth's rotation, as Kepler demonstrated centuries ago. These are solutions inspired by natural systems. This new standard would unleash a tremendous wave of entrepreneurship, fueled by energy efficiency, making renewable energies more competitive since they are not forced to go through the DC-to-AC and then AC-to-DC cycle. Most importantly, all electronics can be designed to achieve a significant leap forward in energy efficiency. Multiples of tiny electrical currents—often at a rate of 70 millivolts—which were never considered commercially viable because inverting them to 110 or 220 V would be too expensive and inefficient, are now becoming economically viable since inversion is only necessary up to 6–12 or 24 V. This is comparable to what is required to bring the energy from solar cells to the grid. The great advantage is that these currents can be used locally, without the need for an electrical grid, transforming the weight and structural design of buildings into a base load that will provide everything needed locally and supply electricity through a smart microgrid. This is ultimately what the blue economy is all about: using what you have, seeing the connections, and then making it happen!
